Predictability:
I have been going back and forth on the c-bet discussion. My main concern is avoiding predictability. You can say, but Dr. Phil, if you always c-bet, is that not predictable? Well, yes, but the problem the caller is facing is determining whether you are betting a monster, a made hand, a draw, or air. The position that we always want to put our opponents in is making a bad decision based on a lack of information. If we only bet our hands when we "connect" with the flop, but check when we miss (or even have a monster), then we become more predictable because the opponent has more information. It is a polarizing action. The opponent must figure out if your c-bet has hit your hand, missed, given you a great draw, or maybe did not need to hit anything since you started with aces! What is a player to do? And, since most flops miss most hands, you must assume that your opponent has missed his.
Next compelling reason: pot odds
Let's say that you have raised pre-flop from the button with our old friend, AK. The flop is air for you, let's say it is queen high, but it is "checked to the raiser" from the big blind and a limper. If you bet, you are offering odds to the other players. They may be good odds, they may be bad odds, but odds they remain. If you check, you are essentially offering infinity odds to the players. Bad things can happen. The pair of 2's who was already in "flop or drop" mode now gets a free card to hit his set. The 6/7 suited who caught a gutshot or backdoor flush draw gets a free card to improve his hand. Bottom pair with no kicker can now improve and/or come after you on the turn after your show of weakness. The lesson here is basically never give them infinity to one odds.
I have looked into my heart about why I have not c-bet in the past. The reason? I have essentially chickened out. Because I have missed most flops I lose confidence rather than plowing ahead. My fears rest in the land of the check raise and the float. A very good play that all advanced players know is the float, where you assume the pre-flop raiser does not have a pair and/or missed the flop. By calling the predictable c-bet, they can then fire a bluff or their made hand on the turn or river. The check raiser does not fare as well, as a check raise is such a strong play that you are correct to fold your c-bet to it. Really advanced players know this and will punish you. However, if you are into the meta-game, sometimes you can win huge by re-raising the check raiser. This is good for very deep stacks but does not usually pay in the smaller faster tournaments. Just not enough chips to force anyone to fold.
I have been going back and forth on the c-bet discussion. My main concern is avoiding predictability. You can say, but Dr. Phil, if you always c-bet, is that not predictable? Well, yes, but the problem the caller is facing is determining whether you are betting a monster, a made hand, a draw, or air. The position that we always want to put our opponents in is making a bad decision based on a lack of information. If we only bet our hands when we "connect" with the flop, but check when we miss (or even have a monster), then we become more predictable because the opponent has more information. It is a polarizing action. The opponent must figure out if your c-bet has hit your hand, missed, given you a great draw, or maybe did not need to hit anything since you started with aces! What is a player to do? And, since most flops miss most hands, you must assume that your opponent has missed his.
Next compelling reason: pot odds
Let's say that you have raised pre-flop from the button with our old friend, AK. The flop is air for you, let's say it is queen high, but it is "checked to the raiser" from the big blind and a limper. If you bet, you are offering odds to the other players. They may be good odds, they may be bad odds, but odds they remain. If you check, you are essentially offering infinity odds to the players. Bad things can happen. The pair of 2's who was already in "flop or drop" mode now gets a free card to hit his set. The 6/7 suited who caught a gutshot or backdoor flush draw gets a free card to improve his hand. Bottom pair with no kicker can now improve and/or come after you on the turn after your show of weakness. The lesson here is basically never give them infinity to one odds.
I have looked into my heart about why I have not c-bet in the past. The reason? I have essentially chickened out. Because I have missed most flops I lose confidence rather than plowing ahead. My fears rest in the land of the check raise and the float. A very good play that all advanced players know is the float, where you assume the pre-flop raiser does not have a pair and/or missed the flop. By calling the predictable c-bet, they can then fire a bluff or their made hand on the turn or river. The check raiser does not fare as well, as a check raise is such a strong play that you are correct to fold your c-bet to it. Really advanced players know this and will punish you. However, if you are into the meta-game, sometimes you can win huge by re-raising the check raiser. This is good for very deep stacks but does not usually pay in the smaller faster tournaments. Just not enough chips to force anyone to fold.
2 comments:
I will get back to you with comments after Pendleton. I know C-Bets work much better in tournaments, so I will have to try it more often. You make some very good points. I am nothing if not stubborn but I will try to change it up a little bit.
I used the C-Bet a lot in the Pendleton tournaments and I hate to admit when I'm wrong, but it worked really well. There were a couple of times when I got in cheap with a pair and flopped a set and I did not C-Bet on those flops, hoping to be able to check raise later, which happened both times. I'm working on trying to make this a habit now. Had a great poker weekend as you know. Anything good for you??
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