The C-Bet

There was a comment on my last post about how they do not like to always continuation bet after raising pre-flop.  Here are the reasons why you should nearly always c-bet.

1.  You have paid for the lead, you need to continue with your aggression.

2.  A bet on the flop from the pre-flop raiser will yield a fold from a single caller more than 1/2 the time.  Thus it is profitable from that standpoint.

3.  If you only bet your hits, and not your draws or whiffs then you are effectively playing your hand face up.  You become predictable and that is never a good thing in poker.

4.  One of several things will happen when you raise pre-flop (in position) with caller(s).

You will nail your flop
You will flop a draw
You will flop total air (if you count overcards to the board as air)
You will catch a piece of the flop such as middle pair...this is essentially a draw

Your opponent has the same opportunity as you on the flop.  Now, you have to ask yourself the question, "If I am the opponent which flops can I reasonably call?"  Well, many opponents will call you with overcards or draws, but not with weak catches or air.  To illustrate this, I raised pre-flop with AK in a recent tournament.  Three players called me.  The flop was AKX and I continuation bet.  All three players folded, including one who had a weak king.  I showed my hand.  A few hands later, I raised pre-flop with QQ.  Two or three callers.  The flop was ace high and I continuation bet the same amount as the last time.  Everyone folded, and one of the callers disgustedly folded his weak ace!  Had I not c-bet, there is little chance I would have won the hand.

What did I learn from this?  My first c-bet was with virtually the nuts, the 2nd with a semi-bluff.  I had a made hand, but extremely vulnerable.  If I had been check-raised, it would have gone in the muck, but another lesson is "don't call raises with weak aces".  You can hit your hand but will not know where you stand and are very vulnerable to aggressive play.

The point of the c-bet is that you want to provide cover for your bluffs and semi-bluffs by consistently raising on the flop.  Another key factor here is bet sizing.  If your initial bet is too much it will force a larger c-bet on the flop.  For example, with blinds at 25/50, and one limper, you raise to 3x the big blind making it $150 to go.  Both the limper and the big blind call.  There is now $475 in the pot, making your 1/2 pot c-bet around $250.  With $725 now in the pot, the first caller is getting 3/1 odds to call.  The wrong odds for most draws and definitely too much for air.  If he calls, the limper is now getting around 4/1 odds, sufficient for some draws.  At this point, you have invested $150 + $250= $400.  If you are talking about a fast tournament with 2000 starting chips, that is 20% of your starting chip stack.  A check raise by either player (particularly the big blind), would have to be at least $500 and would cause you to fold air but get them in with made hands and big draws.  The check raise from the blind shows much more strength than a limper check raise due to having 2 hands behind him.   That said, it helps to know your players, which ones are tricky bastards (I am thinking of an old small Vietnamese man right now at the Crazy Moose), and which like to call with rags in hopes of catching big, which like suited cards of random rank, and which are pretty straightforward tight players (hint:  the fireman @ the moose will not call or check-raise without the stone cold Brazilians).

So, my point is this, you must c-bet nearly always to give yourself more opportunities to win.  Always factor in your opponents, relative stack size and position.  C-betting air against a calling station is generally not profitable.  They will never fold.  Also, the monster stack may also be a tough sell as they are looking to knock you out and use their stack size as a blunt weapon.

 http://www.parttimepoker.com/continuation-betting-in-no-limit-hold-em-cash-games

Bankroll Management

Tournament players, disregard this post.  This is actually a tough discussion but very necessary at the same time.  I just finished reading a chapter from Annie Duke's excellent book, "Decide to Play Great Poker" that addressed this subject.  The most important concept is setting a "stop loss" limit.  Too often we end up losing much more than our bankroll can handle due to several factors:  desire to get even, juicy game, on tilt, was way up and then lost, etc.  She compared setting a stop loss limit before you begin playing to handing your car keys to a friend before you begin drinking.  That way you do not make a poor decision when your judgement is impaired.  I like the analogy.

So, the stop loss can also be applied to a "stop win" situation as well.  Let me run down the scenario.  You have been running well in a juicy game and are up $400 on your $150 buy-in.  Great, you now have $550 in front of you.  But, you lose a few hands due to bad beats and suddenly you are "down" to $300.  Never mind that you are up from your original buy-in, it still feels like crap.  This is the time the stop loss should kick in.  You are not running good anymore, your table image has taken a hit, and you are psychologically beaten.  The "stop win" should kick in if your "stop loss" is one buy-in since that is more than you have lost from your peak.  Basically you can constantly reset your stop win if you continue to run good, but be prepared to quit if you drop past your original stop loss.

This will accomplish some good things.  One, you can leave a winner and fight another day (with a bigger bankroll).  Second, you can feel good about your self discipline.  And last of all, psychologically you are healthier.  You have money to play another day which is not always the case if you just sit there and pile on losses.

True story about my biggest loss in a limit game.  Several years ago I was playing in a very loose 3/6 limit game.  The usual suspects were there to raise and re-raise every pot.  My normal stop loss is 2 buy-ins, but due to the wild fluctuations and huge pots I decided to keep re-buying.  At one point I was "stuck" $700 but so convinced that it would turn around for me that I tossed my wallet to the floor supervisor and said give me chips.  I had almost a $1000 on me.  Lucky for me, I only lost about $40 more before coming to my senses and cashing out.  Had I put my normal stop loss in play, I would have left with $500 more in my pocket to "fight another day".  I have had similar things happen, normally while playing a smaller game, but never to that level.  I have learned to be very careful in small games as you can lose more than in the big games and it is also very difficult to beat the rake.

Observations While Dealing

Playing and dealing has some advantages.  First and foremost is that it allows you to play for a discount or free sometimes.  This may not seem like a big deal but consider that if you only got back half of your $40 buy-in, and played the 50 or so Friday nights, you would save $1000.  That is pretty good money.  Since I normally like to deal table 2  and get at minimum 30%, and normally around $1400 or so in prize money, tips are 10% of net, so $100+/- in tips which gets me $30.  Pretty cheap tournament entry.

The other advantage is that it forces you to watch all of the action.  Too often in a long game our minds tend to drift and we really don't focus on the players or their actions.  I have picked up many player tendencies by carefully observing their play.  Who will ship it light?  Who only plays the nuts?  Who bluffs on the button?  Who calls light?  Who bets light?  Who falls in love with suited cards?  Who falls in love with their pair?  Who check-raises?  Who will call with any pair to the river?  Who limps under the gun with big hands?  On the same note, who likes to trap?  Who doesn't?  All of these things are observable to all players, but some are ovlivious.  We all play somewhat predictably, that is to say we do certain things with certain hands.  These can become "tells" if we are not careful.  For example, if you raise before the flop with your big cards and miss the flop do you always continuation bet or only if you connect with the flop?  If you are not, then your hand becomes almost face-up and that lowly pair of 2's will snap your AK.  The continuation bet is an important part of your game as it gives cover to those times when you miss and credibility when you nail it.

I cannot mention names here as some of my fellow players read my blog, but let me give you some examples of weak play that I recently observed.

One player at my table last week played virtually every hand, including several raised pots (p.s., he is not the only regular who does this).  He chipped up early and big but I accurately predicted that he would give them away.  He simply played too many hands with too weak of cards.

Another player is very talkative.  He will almost tell you what his cards are if you speak with him for a little bit.

A couple of players re-raised all-in with the 2nd nut straight.  This is a more common error that is made.  Some players are somewhat oblivious to board texture and do not think through the possible hands that beat them.  For example, saw AQ take all of Q/x chips on a K/J/10/9/x board.  If you are re-raising on a probable chop what is the point?  Is 7/8 really going to pay you off here?  Also, I see heavy betting sometimes when 2 pair gets carried away on a paired board or 3 flush board.  Not smart poker.

So remember, readers, that careful observation of play can pay big benefits in a tournament where you know most of the players.  The observation thing is important but can be misleading in big tournaments with crafty unknown players.

Winning Streak. Who, Me?

Friday night legion poker.  Agreeing to deal table 2, I took a big hit early from a flopped set of 6's vs. my top pair. Short stacked, I had to gamble up and got a couple of double ups to get back in the tournament.  Made a wise laydown that would have knocked out 2 players.  3/3 shoves and is overcalled by two players with crap (5/6 suited and 7/8 as I recall).  As last action I folded my pocket 4's only to see the flop come 4/2/2.  The 3's ended up with a straight and the 5/6 got a pair to knock one player out.  Dang, missed opportunity but still the right decision.

Gliding into the final table with a decent chip stack I just let folks battle it out and knock out players until we hit the money....paying 6 places plus the bubble.  My big break came when we were down to 3 players and limping in with 10/J.  The flop was 10/J/A and I was snap called by a weak ace who was the chip leader.  I vaulted to 2nd place and suggested a 3 way chop for $318 each.  We agreed and I also "won" $30 for dealing.  A good night of poker and I jumped way up in the quarterly point standings.

I don't know if I am playing better or just getting consistently lucky, maybe a combination.  Glad to be "like butter", that is "on a roll".

These Are A Few of My Favorite Things

Have you ever noticed that many poker players develop a special attachment to certain cards?  Some favorites I have seen:  2/7, J/9, J/2, K/9, 5/8, 2/3 (one of my early favorites), and many more.  These hands generally are ones that are not intrinsically strong but are random and cards you will probably be dealt sometime during a session.  The key for most players when they get these is to come out raising and continuing to bet most of the time whether they "hit" their hand or not.  Basically, these become their random bluff hands.  While this is a great element in any game, I am becoming of the opinion that you are much better to focus your bluffs on a different randomness.  I read a suggestion long ago that you should base your bluff on a time factor, such as bluffing every 23 minutes.  This gives much more randomness to the bluff and never enables you to be "put on a hand".

Ace Queen Strikes Again

Arrrrrggggg!  When am I going to learn to just throw this piece of s--t away!  Last night at Wheeler I was running good early, had chipped up nicely then we went down to 2 tables.  The "beginning of the end" for me was my raise in middle position with my dreaded AQ.  A shorter stack re-raised all-in but I felt that I was pot committed and would still have a fairly viable chip stack if I called and lost.  He tabled JJ when I called and the race was on.  I lost, and was soon down to 2 1/2 blinds at the 100/200 level.  In the big blind with 1/2 my chips in play it was folded to the aggressive button who raised to 400.  The small blind folded and I called, leaving behind only 75.  The flop was king high (I had 4/8 off) and I had no pair and no draw.  I "shoved" and was quickly called by Gary's K/J.  The turn brought a 4, the river an 8 for an unbelievable 2 pair win.  I won another hand, lost some and was dealt A/5 in middle position with only 3 1/2 blinds.  I shove and am called by the same player who got most of my chips with his JJ.  He shows J/Q of clubs.  The flop is low, with a 5 and the turn is harmless but the river is a jack and I am done in 10th or 11th place.  Long drive home, or as we say, "hardnosing the highway".

Million Dollar Error

O.K., so it is not a real million dollars, but still.  Last night I was in bed but could not sleep so got up and plugged in to Pokerstars.  My usual comfort zone is the $1000 buy-in tournament, either the 18 person or 45 sit and go.  So, I decided to play in the 45 player tournament.  I made it deep but did not cash (10th place).  So, it is late, probably 10:45 or so, and decide to play one more, but choose instead the 18 player turbo so it won't keep me up too late.  Usually when searching for a game I select the ascending value tournaments so I can quickly choose one.  However, I forgot to do this and punched in the first 18 SNG turbo on the list.

It seemed that the players were not quite as crazy as usual, no preflop shoves on the first hand, etc.  I did well in the tournament, chipping up early and eliminating several players.  We got down to the "money" which is the top 4 spots.  I chipped up massively and was the chip leader heads up.  We battled for a while but he eventually got me.  I clicked on the prize button as had forgotten exactly what 2nd place paid.  Huh?  $1,250,000?  What the what?  I had accidently enrolled in the $250,000 buy-in SNG!!!!  All is well that ends well and I am now equipped to "move up" to the bigger games.  I think as poker players we are all looking to move to the next level.  Just did not plan to do so last night.

Stopped Clock Poker

"Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day".

Sometimes I am truly amazed at how bad some folks play poker and yet win due to unbelievable luck.  Last night at the Legion I both witnessed it and was victimized by it.  For instance, a very good player with a big stack managed to be eliminated in 5th place when he called a bluff all-in with his pair of 8's.  The bluffer had K/7 and of course hit his king.  I got a chunk of his chips when he shoved a 4/5/6- 3 club flop holding the K of clubs and a 7.  I called with K/6 and his multiple outs failed to come in.  With 20 outs (twice), I was technically way behind on the flop.  He took a couple of other hits for similar to this.

As dealer for the final table, I was hoping to cash.  We had found a gift for granddaughter Eva and I was on a mission to pay for it from poker winnings.  With 4 tables going I was assured of freerolling my buy in from the tip pool, so any winnings would be net.  I made the final table with a short stack but got fortunate several times (with the best starting hand) and we got down to 3 players.  Some discussion went on about a 3 way chop for around $300 each but one player (chip leader) wanted to play 5 more minutes until the next blind level.  Fine.  The first hand I dealt myself was 3/3, and with about 17,000 in chips, I shoved from the small blind.  The big blind, an incredibly lucky and frankly clueless player called for over half his chips with......K/4 unsuited.  I really did not want the call, as figured I was behind or definitely in a coin flip.  He managed to river a king and eliminate me in 3rd place for $170 win.  The remaining 2 players....one of which got the lucky king on the river earlier to survive..... played a few hands then chopped with the leader getting $30 more (chop was around $800 total).  I felt very cheated for a couple of reasons.  1st, not chopping 3 ways cost me $130.  His catch of the king cost me another $100 as I would have been chip leader if my 3's had held up.  The good news is, I paid for Eva's gift, a building block set, which will be delivered next week.

Mutiny on the Bounty

It has been a full two years since I have made the arduous trek to Spirit Mountain casino in Grande Ronde, Oregon.  It is almost a two hour drive each way around very curvy roads and usually in the rain.  I decided years ago just not worth it during the summer do to heavy tourist traffic and during the winter due to early darkness.  So, I figured it was time for a visit with daylight savings time and nice weather lately.  Mike, my poker friend and I have been talking about it for a while and decided Saturday was the day.  I picked him up in Wheeler, just South of me at 9:00 and we headed out.  It was a much more enjoyable drive with company and Mike and I arrived in plenty of time to get player's cards and get extra chips for early sign up for the noon tournament.  There was even time for some live poker, so I bought in for $200 in the $1-3 no limit game just starting.  Clearly it was filled with big time gamblers as most bought in for the full $300 limit, and most of them were on the list for the bigger game $2-5.  I watched one player get stacked early on, re-buy then get stacked again.  Another player was felted and I was not playing many hands as straddles were almost always in effect and pre-flop raises were common.  A straddle was in effect with a couple of limpers when I picked up K/K.  I made it $26 to go and everyone folded.  I was the only stranger at the table so they probably picked up on my tight play and gave me credit for a big hand.  Later I played AK deceptively by checking an un-raised pot out of the blinds and betting on the king high flop.  I had one caller who had not lost a hand.  He called my turn bet as well (20 flop, 25 turn), but folded to a 20 river bet.  Tournament time was starting so I racked up my $31 win and drew a seat.

I did not realize that this was a $25 bounty tournament until after we began playing.  I never do well on bounties but basically only want to reclaim mine at the very end.  Still, it was a compelling reason to call a short stack shove.  I was on the same table as Mike and neither of us gained much traction.  Mike collected one bounty while the kid two to my right had a monster stack and 3 bounty buttons.  He later donked off all of his chips, including doubling me up once (9/9  vs. J/7 hearts).  I doubled up once more with AA vs. A10, but the player had me covered so no bounty!  Mike missed a huge opportunity but made a wise fold in a juicy pot, calling a big raise with AJ, but folding to AQ shove with a caller.  The AQ held up, but with a jack on the flop would have really chipped Mike up.  We talked about that hand later and both agreed that it was the right action given stacks, action, etc.  Missed another bounty when calling a small raise with A/3 of clubs and flopping the flush.  The original bettor continuation bet, I called, then check raised him on the turn.  He called, and I felt he was pot committed so I shoved the river only to get his shorter stack to fold.  Like I said, I seldom collect bounties.

Mike went down and I continued on to the final table.  There were two eliminations with one player to my immediate right catching fire knocking both of them out.  He took a big stack out with his A7 vs A2 on a A/7/x/2 board.  He next got me with blinds at 1200/2400 and 300 antes.  He limped in with K/10 and I shoved on the button with A9 and a stack size of around 7000.  When other hands folded to him he had good odds (2400 antes, 1200 small blind, 2400 big blind, 2400 limper, his 2400, my 7000 = 17,800 pot, with "only" 4600 to call giving him 4/1 odds with a monster stack remaining if he lost.  He turned a king and my day at Spirit Mountain was over in 8th place with only 3 places paid (35 entrants).  Mike and I commented on the lousy pay structure and small payouts...1st was only $750.  With bounties and rake it is definitely not worth the long drive.

We made the trip safely back in the rain and agreed that it was fun if not profitable. 

Emery

I missed my Wednesday Wheeler tournament this week.  Instead I went to Portland to attend a memorial service.  2 weeks ago a Cannon Beach friend, Emery Sundberg, succumbed to complications from a surgical procedure he had months ago.  His home was a couple of blocks from our ice cream store (now bakery/coffee shop) and he and his family were frequent visitors.  After closing our place I would see him occasionally and we would talk for a few minutes.  Every once in a while we would have coffee with another friend.  I dubbed our coffee group the "Young Liberal Democrats" to serve as cover for the roaring liberal population here.  Emery had me on his email forward list and I got tons of political comment and cartoons on a regular basis, and even set up a file for them because I hated to delete them.  I just counted them and there are 542 of them.  The last one was in December.  I am very sorry that I did not know about his illness, but it would not have been like him to talk about it, or himself.  He was a gentleman, a patriot (Seabees in Korea), and a good friend.  We will all miss him, RIP.

Americas Cardroom Win

With my bankroll down to about $5.00 I decided to give a $25 guaranteed tournament a try.  I had earlier been blown out of the $10 freeroll and had a horrible beat on Zynga.  I was not feeling the love.  Sure enough, I took some hits early but fought back.  The payouts were to the top 18 and I just tried to hang in long enough to get an .83 return on my .55 investment.  Once the bubble was broken several players busted out and moved me up in the money.  I had several great hands, flopping sets, big pairs, KK, AA, QQ that held up.  Once I knocked the top stack off it was all gravy for me heads-up.  I think I lost only a couple of small pots, putting lots of pressure on the short stack (had him about 9 to 1).

93 entries, no re-buys from me.  Total win $11.62.  Sweet.

Pain in The Backside

Woke up this morning with horrible pain in my back.  Military grade Naproxin is helping some, but man I can hardly move.  My wife is recommending more excercise and some stretching on the floor but am afraid that if I get down there will not be able to get back up.  Is this some diabolical age-related stuff or have I hurt something?  No idea.  My plan for today was to drive over to the rock quarry and pick up some flat stones to deal with my perpetually wet side of the yard that happens to be the entry to the backyard.  Guess that plan will have to wait.

You know, they say that good health is something we just take for granted, until we no longer have it.  This I believe just as fish never see the water.  So, my new plan today is to play on the computer (just like most days), watch t.v., and hope for some pain relief.

Some 'Splaing About How I Bubbled Last Night

By all rights, I should have finished in no worse than 3rd place at Wheeler last night.  Let me run down the evening's game for you.  I was above average chip stack early but ran into a trouble hand.  Playing K/10 against a min-raise with another caller or two out of position in a blind, the flop was A/K/x.  I decided to lead out to "find out where I was".  The initial raiser, an unknown young kid off the street who had wandered into our game raised me from $300 to $600.  He had chipped up big and was leader on our table.  He played aggressively, and I thought pretty well.  When Robert to my immediate right called his raise I folded, even though that left me below starting chip stack (we only begin with 1300...very slow blind structure so not as short a stack as you think).  Robert ended up winning with A/9...had I stayed in making a very poor decision....would have tripled up as I went runners for a broadway straight.  Oh well, a good decision is a good decision.  One thing led to another and I was down to a single big blind at the 75/150 level.  Our table broke and I drew great position, cutoff, so I could see quite a few hands before having to act.  I chose wisely in a big volume unraised pot with my Q/10 off.  The aggressive kid had followed me, and raised big on the flop with his 10/J no pair straight draw which folded the table.  My queen high won and I was back in business.

Making the final table (23 total players) was a mini-miracle, but I was still short.  Had a couple of good hands to double up and we were down to 5 players with 4 being paid (plus the bubble).  Gary, one of the bigger stacks lost most of his chips (down to 500) with a bad beat...his A/10 vs. Q/10.  Robert lost almost his entire big stack against the chip leader, Mike.  The chip stacks stood as follows:

Mike Thousands
Robert:  1200
Kyle:  Thousands
Gary:  500
Me:  1700

This hand came up:  Blinds are at 500/1000.  Robert shoves, everyone folds to me with K/K in the big blind, I call.  Robert tables Q/Q.  Nice to play with you, bubble boy!!!  Except I forgot that Robert is a luckbox and hits his 2 outer.  This is important.  Notice that I now have exactly one small blind.  Had Robert had 200 less, I could then fold my small blind and still have 200 left with Gary forced into a pot before me.  So now I am all-in small blind.  Mike is big blind with tonnage of chips, but surprisingly folds when Robert shoves.  Heads up, he shows Q/9 and happily I have 5/5 so am again ahead.  The flop brings a 9, the turn a queen and I am out on the bubble.  With any breaks at all I finish no worse than 3rd.  Ouch and double ouch.