Much Better to Be Lucky

Friday night Legion tournament, a most amazing story. I almost did not play, but went at the last minute. My luck has been spotty there with lots of very good players among the 40 or so that show up every week. This was the last week to qualify for points to get into the quarterly freeroll which is a great tournament: 20 players, $800 first prize, and free pizza. I was on the cusp at #19, with 5 points (1-2nd place finish), and only 6 points guaranteeing a seat, so if the wrong players finished high, I was out.

The very first hand set the tone. I like to be a little aggressive early as you only start with 2150 chips, 10/20 blind structure (15 minute rounds), so chipping up early is a good thing as it widens the hands you can play and bulletproofs you from bad beats. Plus, the players tend to play pretty conservatively early so it is easier to get some easy chips. I looked down at KJ suited and put a small raise in, 3 times big blind. Ross, who sometimes deals and has won probably more than anyone calls me from the blind. With a flop of AJ8 he checks and I continuation bet a pot size $200. Ross, playing the player and knowing I like to be aggressive calls. The turn is a blank and I bet another $200. Ross and I eye each other suspiciously and he calls. The river: jack. Ross immediately pushes all-in and I ask, "AJ?". He clams up and I briefly think about it and decide he is slow playing a weak ace and call. He shows his QJ and Wow! Double up first hand!

But, here is where it gets strange (for me). The second hand of the tournament I look down at pocket 8's and with a couple of limpers I decide to raise again (after all, I am the chip leader in the tournament). John, who is an excellent player and is dealing to my immediate right calls. The flop is queen high with 2 small cards and two diamonds and when it is checked to me I continuation bet again pot size. John calls, and as he burns a card I yell out "diamond!", and sure enough there it is: the eight of diamonds. John checks to me and I check behind him...yes it is a little strange to call for a card, get it, make a set, then check but I had my suspicions. The river, unbelievable, the case eight! John bets $300 and I come over the top all in. He insta-calls with his King high flush that he hit on the turn and I table my quad 8's to knock him out (my high hand lasted until the final table when it got beaten by quad 10's). In retrospect I am pretty amazed that both players didn't get away from their hands with a pair on the board, but I could have just as easily gone down in flames on the first hand if he was slowplaying a flopped set. Anyway, have never tripled my chips in two hands before and probably never will again.

Two other lucky hands, one I raised with AJ, was called by AQ, caught the jack on the flop and knocked the player out with my all-in. Second very lucky hand was with A9 on the button, raising 3000 and getting a reraise all-in from AJ in the small blind. He had me covered by $100 and I flopped 2 spades with the ace of spades in my hand. Unbelievably it went runner-runner spades for the nut flush! That just "never" happens to me.

Needless to say I was able to coast to the final table despite being fairly card dead after that, but used my big chip stack to steal a lot of blinds late and ended up chopping 1st & 2nd (I was chip leader by 3000) with an excellent lady player and giving her husband 3rd place...didn't like playing against a "team", plus I offered 1st place points to her, which she needed for the TOC. A very nice win and a prime example of being lucky.

Lucky or Good????

The debate rages on whether it is better to be lucky or good. In my humble opinion, it is better to be good, since luck seems to come and go, and we all tend to get our share at times. A case in point is Ramone, the man with the lucky horseshoe placed strategically where "the sun don't shine". For many months, he seemingly could not lose. Every time he played, he cashed out for hundreds of dollars. Then inexplicably, he began to lose. I saw him lose many sessions, and then he sort of quit playing (I think he was visiting his son in Texas at least part of the time). Anyway, yesterday at Spirit Mountain I was in the luck mode, and I like to think playing skillfully as well. The morning began pretty well on the 3/6 table (only table going at 9:00), with pocket pair after pocket pair. They were running an "aces cracked/win a rack" promotion so I was particularly happy to see my pocket aces contested with re-raises. Unfortunately, I spiked an ace on the river to take the pot over his two pair and lost the $100 bonus. Anyway, when the 4/8 game began, I moved tables (away from my lucky seat) to take advantage of the higher stakes. Wednesday's the promotion they run is $25 for any full house, $100 for quads, $200 for straight flushes.

The table was pretty tough, with a lot of high limit players killing time until the no limit game started, and I quickly found myself down about $200. Then, the better players left and the deck really started to hit me. I collected 5- $25. full house bonuses, and won some nice pots with them. Where the skill part came in was maximizing my winning hands, and getting away from losing hands early for the most part. The table was just so weak, with players making dumb bluffs into crowds, failing to raise with the nuts, or just failing to value bet at the end. A prime example of the weak play I saw was a board with a flop of K/10/7, I had pocket 2's, so decided to "take one off", despite a bet and call. The turn brought another 7, so decided to call again ( I am not thinking this is a smart play at this time), and the river brought another 7, so when it was checked to me, I bet $8, figuring that at least I would get my $25 bonus, and when I got a caller, figured I lost, but no, he had nothing and I took down the pot. I ended up with a $240 profit (which was a huge comeback from -$200). It was a good day and a lucky one too. I don't think that I have ever had as many full houses in one session before.

Can't Understand Some Players

So, here is the scenario. I am playing in an online World Series Qualifier, top two win a seat in a $1500 WSOP event, plus $1000 cash. I find myself in late position (button?) with lots of limpers and me with pocket aces. I don't want a whole lot of competition as it would be a huge mistake to just limp, so I make a pot size raise to thin the field. I get two callers, one with J/10 os, the other with J/9 os. Great! The flop is good for me with a Q/K/K, giving the J/10 what he thinks is an open-ended straight draw, and the J/9 a gutshot straight draw. In truth, the J/10 only has three outs, since the other guy has a 9, and the gutshot likewise has only 3 outs since the other villain has a 10. The ace is obviously no good to them since that fills me up. I bet about 60% of pot size, to try to judge the opposing hands, thinking I might fold if one of them comes over the top with their KQ. I get two callers. The turn is a blank, and I go all-in. They both insta-call for nearly all their chips (they both had me barely covered) on their weak draws. The river....a 9 for the completed straight for J/10 and I am gone. I think that I played this hand pretty well, could have moved all-in on the flop, but am busted for sure if a king is in play. I just think this was super donkey play on both their parts as the betting pattern had to put me on a big pair, aces, kings, or queens or at the least AK or KQ which would have put them both far, far behind. I think there are situations where you have to put all or most of your chips in on a draw, but this was fairly early so I don't really understand their play.

Spade Poker

So, my new website for my online gambling is Spadepoker.com. It is free for 14 days (enter code: spades I think for the 14 day trial. One problem with Washington residents is the legality issue which will probably disqualify you. You have to verify both email address and physical address (fax driver's license) in order to take any money out. I have not yet had that problem, but come very close. It is a pretty cool site, with downloadable avatars of your own choosing, tons of freerolls and "point builders" which you need to enter bigger tourneys. There are a couple of world series qualifiers going now. You need to earn a bunch of points to enter....have made it once, but busted out early on a bad beat for a $1500 entry plus expenses. I have qualified for the last one next week so here's hoping. One other thing that I like about the site are the omaha tournaments. Most are just for points, but there are cash ones too. Since enrolling in this site, ultimatebet is 2nd choice except for cash omaha games.

Funny

Thought this was very funny, and true. Kinda small to read.

Weekend results

Lots of tournament play this weekend. Out of five tournaments, I made the final table on 3, but only one 2nd place cash. I thought this morning's Moose was going to go my way after I totally sucked out on two all-ins, but was ultimately knocked out by someone else's suckout. The first was really a sick one, with me limping in early with 3/6 suited. The flop was my dream....4/5/7, I bet, was called, then re-raised. I came over the top all-in, the first caller called and the raiser folded his k/7 face up. We turned over our cards to show my flopped straight, and Derrick's better flopped straight with the 6/8!!! The river however saved me with another 8 for a chopped pot. Never been so glad to share in my life. My second big suckout was a button raise with A/6 against a short stack. He called and the flop was K,10,x. We both checked. The turn was a 6, giving me a pair. He then went all-in. I thought for a moment and decided to call the $1000 bet into the 700 pot. He turns over KQ and I am in trouble. The river...another 6! Unbelievable, I never get this lucky.

The final hand for me was a blind steal attempt agains someone who had just stolen both my blinds. We were down to the last 6 players with one very short stack, so in retrospect, maybe not so bright a thought. Anyway, I raised to $3000 (blinds 500/1000), and big blind calls (did I mention my steal was with Q/5 offsuit?) with AJ. The flop was KQX, and the bb bets to put me all-in. I think for just a second and decide he is bluffing (which he was), and call with middle pair. He comments that he was just trying to get me off the hand. The turn is beautiful, a 5, giving me 2 pair and negating his overcard. The turn...his 3 outer 10 for the straight. Sick!

Anyway, counting bounties & freeplay wins earned, I only lost $20 this weekend for an awful lot of play.

Winning Night at The Moose

I have been very disappointed in the cash games at the Moose for quite a while, but having been gone for a couple of weeks decided to "get back on the horse". It was a pretty bad game, with 7 or 8 players to the flop, a lot of preflop raises and reraises. I decided to just play very tight and wait for my opportunities. For about 2 hours it was up and down, never getting up more than $30 or down more than $50. When the suggestion was made to change to a $4/8 game I vetoed the idea, along with one other player. When she left, I went along with the change, but with reservations. Turned out it was a great idea. The game really didn't change with a lot of preflop raises, etc., but I eventually started getting some great hands and was getting calls from vastly inferior ones. The average pot was at least $100. An example was a "light preflop raiser" to my right raised, I reraised with AQ of spades and everyone at the table called when it was capped. The flop was queen high with no flush or straight draws and when it was bet and raised in front of me I reraised with everyone calling. The turn was a bit of a cooler with another queen hitting, but sure enough it was bet into me, with my raise not shaking two other players. The river....ace...bingo! Just in case someone got lucky on their kicker they were now in trouble. Sure enough it was bet into me, I raised, they reraised, I capped to see the "genius" (self described at the table earlier) show a queen 4 for trip queens. Ouch, that's gotta hurt.

Anyway, it went that way for over an hour and I ended up cashing out for $530, with a $100 original buy-in. Nice day of work.