No Luck at The Legion

"Another Friday night and I ain't got no money" remember that song? I was playing pretty much like a rock and doing o.k. We got down to 2 tables (only 33 players) and I ran into my problems. First I raised with A/10 and was reraised all in by pocket 4's. I lost that race. Then I raised all in with pocket 9's at was called by short stack Paul with pocket queens. Ouch, but still had about a $1000 in chips. With blinds at 300/600 and in the big blind I was raised by someone who was aggressive and usually had a pair or big cards. With J/6 of clubs I was getting pretty good pot odds so I threw the last of my chips in the pot. She had pocket 7's which held up, oh well.

Right now I am alternating between card dead and people getting really really lucky against me. Example: I have A/9 on the button. The flop is 9/5/2. The aggressive Big blind bets 250, which I raise to 500. She calls. The turn is another 2, she checks, I check. The river another 2, she checks, I check (I am suspicious of a trap). She turns over queen/9 for a chopped pot! Now, I may have been able to take the pot with an aggressive bet on the turn, but she is an excellent player who might have re-raised me, in which case I have to fold. Anyway, just a small sample of how it has been going lately.

Luck Vs. Skill

Talking to my friends Victor and Jane today I was trying to explain the skill factor in poker versus the gambling or luck factor. Many people have the wrong idea about skill in poker. They are aware of luck in gambling because that is mainly what it is. The house always has an edge in every game, and there is little that a player can do to improve his results. There have been many "systems" created over the years by players to win. For instance the famous "Martingale" system of blackjack. This is simply establishing a baseline bet, say $5.00, then if you lose your bet, you double it on the next bet to $10.00. If you lose that bet, double again to $20.00 and so on. When you win that last bet, you go back to your baseline bet. I have heard people claim that it is impossible to lose this way, and claim they are big winners doing this. In theory, this is correct but if you contiue the formula you can see that eventually the bets reach unmanageable sizes and/or over the betting limits at the casino. Throw in the fact that you can also get double downs or split hands involved and it soon falls apart.

But the luck factor in poker is lessened and the skill factor is enhanced by several factors. First there is starting hand selection. Better starting cards usually mean increased odds to win. We would all like to start with aces rather than deuces. But in poker it is more involved. Hand selection varies with position, previous actions (are you calling a raise or just a bet), tendencies of players in the hand, etc. Another non-luck factor is reads, or deciphering a players body language, comments, facial expressions, reactions, etc. This is definitely a skill, and one that can be learned over time. The bluff in poker is a big non-luck factor. As I explained in an earlier post, the pro's do not necessarily need great cards to win. They use their table image, position, chip stack, reads, etc. to win chips. Poker without bluffing would be a "showdown" game which you could probably play with cards face up.

Ecclesiastes explanation of bad beats

Finally a reliable source of explanation for the tremendous bad beats I have been experiencing. Like the famous Job in the bible whose faith was tested by increasingly terrible events as a test of his faithfulness, I have found an answer in the bible. The author of Ecclesiastes says: "The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to the men of skill; but time and chance happen to them all."

So there you have it. Being a better poker player just is not enough. The rain pours down on the just and the unjust. The problem is that it happens to different people at the same table you are sitting on, especially the donkeys among them.

Don't Cry Over Spilt Wine

Last night we finally had our neighbors, Bernie and Patty, over for dinner. They are part-time neighbors who live in Seattle and have a vacation home here in Cannon Beach. I felt very uncomfortable with Bernie for a while because we "had howdied but ain't shook", as Will Rogers used to say. Helene and Patty bonded quickly, as women do, but for some reason we had never gotten together socially. So, last night they came over for wine and pizza. I served Bernie some red wine and poured myself a glass. Patty was drinking white wine. I announced to Bernie that he would need to sit in one of the seagrass chairs because he was drinking red wine, while Patty got the sofa because she had white wine. The reason for this stems back to Christmas when I sat on the pale yellow slipcover sofa with a glass of red wine and somehow a couple of drops spashed onto the cushion. I tried mightily to remove the stain, but somehow only managed to lighten it, along with the color surrounding it. Yikes! Well, anyway, with that history behind me, it made sense for Bernie and I to sit on the dark upholstered seats safely away from the sofa. But what I forgot was Yankee ingenuity. We have small, but heavy, side tables that are usually by the chairs, but one had been moved to the side of the sofa. So, being the great host that I am, I put my drink on the floor and moved the table so we could share. Unfortunately, with our new deep shag very light color carpeting the floor was very unstable and my wine spilled with a long gash across the carpet! Immediate first aid was applied, i.e. blotting and seltzer water and this morning some carpet cleaner, but I fear the worst. I am just a one-man wrecking crew on our new stuff.

One quick poker note: played in one tournament and went out on the bubble with pocket aces. I was the second short stack, and limped in at $100 blind with them, hoping for someone moving on the pot. The shortest stack did just that with pocket 9's for another $500. The humongous stack at the table (8000 or so) flat calls with 6/8 offsuit. I reraise all-in for another 500, which he hesitates, but getting good odds, calls. The flop is 234 of clubs. Since I have the ace of clubs, this is a very good flop. The 9's are drawing to one out (he has no clubs), and the 6/8 gutshot draw is drawing to 3 outs (he has no club either). So, of course the 5 of diamonds comes completing his straight and we are both out when no club falls on the river. Mr. shortstack finishes 5th, me 4th, and the other 3 players line up for their paychecks. I make up for my loss with some great omaha play and end the day up financially, but still....aces cracked yet again.

On Tilt- Big Time

This has not happened to me for a long, long time. I went into total complete tilt mode at the American Legion last night. I really thought that with the many tournaments that I play and the awful beats that happen to me made me immune, but that is not so. It began simply enough with my seat selection, table 1 seat 7. There were 3 complete novices at the table, 2 or 3 good players (not counting me), one drunk, and a couple of clueless regulars. In other words, a toxic mix. It began with the drunk raising every hand, chasing and catching up. I did not have a playable hand but watched with envy as the beginners donked off their chips to him. He finally slowed down and another player began catching everything, taking the chips off the drunk. In the meantime one of the novices kept backing into the best hand, always calling, never betting. Finally I pick up A10 and the dealer raises. I call to see a A/5/7 flop. He bets, I raise to find out where I am, the novice folds, and the dealer flat calls. The turn brings a 9, I bet dealer calls. The river another 9, dealer checks, I bet smallish and he check raises big. I ponder, then fold my ace face up, saying "your ace king is good". He flips over pocket 5's for a flopped set. Good fold, but am starting to curse my luck with him hitting his 2 outer. Almost the next hand I limp in with a 9/7 suited. The flop comes with a 6/8/J for the open ender. Check, Bet by me, and the novice to my left calls. Turn 9, I bet again, maybe 30% of pot, and he again calls. River blank, I check, he checks, I say, "9's and a missed straight", he turns over....pocket 10's. I can tell you in all honesty that had I gone all in on the river he would have called, despite my constant bets and the jack on the board. The reason I can say this is that after that hand, I am rolling my eyes and putting an imaginary gun to my head for the amusement of Ross at the other end of the table, who is doing the same kind of gestures. Ross is a thoughtful good player who has won the tournament many many times, including back to back wins this fall. I am genuinely disgusted at my hands, the weak but successful play of the rookies, my rotten luck, and the whole table in general. I make a gesture to Ross that I am going all in the next hand, he says "good luck all in", even tho the hand has not been dealt. I have A4 of spades, Ross is on the button, and I don't go allin , I just raise about 250. The rookie to my left calls as does Ross. The flop is 10 high, Ross checks and I go all in for about 700 more. The Rookie calls, Ross folds KQ face up, and the Rookie shows....AK!!!! I am drawing to a backdoor flush or a 4 which naturally don't come. I am very relieved to be the first one out of the tournament and head home!!!

Birthday Thoughts

Yesterday was my birthday. This seems to happen with some regularity, about once a year according to my rough estimates. I am a little overwhelmed at the nice gifts and cards that I received from my family. I am looking forward to clamming with my new clam shovel and my new computer briefcase nicely replaces the old one that I found (not dumpster diving, as some have accused, but left at a bus stop). I also received a very good book, "The Year of Living Biblically", by A.J. Jacobs. This is sort of a follow up book from his best seller, "The Know it All", where he very humorously recounted reading the entire Encyclopedia Brittanica. Anyway, reading it has inspired me to try making some changes in my life. Mainly, I would like to try writing some and reading more. As a college English major I read constantly. Some semesters I would read up to 12 books in each class, and would have as many as 5 classes so I really did a lot of reading. Unfortunately, this was not leisure reading and often I would be analyzing the style, plot and character development , so enjoyment was not high on my list. My list of things that I want to do are:

1. Read at least an hour or two every day.
2. Write for at least an hour a day (I have this idea for a novel).
3. Play poker less (no more than an hour or so a day online).
4. Work on my furniture "art" project. This is for now a driftwood chair.
5. Walk at least a couple of miles every day.
6. Do some weight training. Will probably have to do this in Tri-Cities, where my weights are.
7. Get back to bike riding.

This is sort of starting to look like a new year's resolution list, which it is. I will try my best to accomplish this list, it is important to me and to my family.

Getting the Spirit

It has been a long time since I have made the trip down to Grand Ronde to the Spirit Mountain Casino so I decided as a little birthday present to myself I would go on Tuesday. Luckily, my boss Geoff in Salem was able to get away as well. I was on the tables about 10 a.m. and played until 7:00. I was doing pretty well on the 4/8 table when Geoff arrived for a late buffet lunch. Yum! Pigging out on the buffets is something that I miss about Vegas. Returning to the tables and stepping down to the 3/6 just didn't work out for me. Driving home late I found my usual shortcut to hwy. 101 blocked for construction, so had to take the long way around. Home at 9:00 for a long day.

Legion Friday Night

Another Friday night at the Cannon Beach American Legion. I am pretty card dead all night, with my first big loss the last hand before the break. I have 10/j offsuit in a family pot. The flop comes jack high and the short stack, a very good player, goes all in for 625 more (there was around 800 in the pot. Like a dutiful donkey I called to lose to AJ, but still think it was a good pot odds call. My next big loss was a 1000 raise (i think the blinds were 200-400), with AJ. My only caller was a short stack with A9. With a 9 high flop he went all in for 600 more, leaving me now drawing for the 3 outer. No such luck. I bluffed a couple of pots, and finally, with only 700 left, and the blinds at 300-600, I pushed with an ace (didn't bother looking at the other card) to see the small and big blinds both call. The small blind had K9 which was good with a king on the flop...my other card was a 5.

When I got up to leave, I pushed my chair back, knocking over the tv table behind me with 2 glasses of beer on them. Both glasses broke and made a huge mess on the floor which I then spent 10 minutes cleaning up. Perfect!!!!

Good Tournament Day

Playing on 3 Sit n Go tournaments in one day is my idea of a great time, especially when you cash in all three! My first tournament was a "just in the money" 7th place in a 45 person tournament. Lost one big hand and got short stacked on the final table. Another short stack (just a little bigger than mine) went all in with pocket jacks. I look down at pocket queens so I naturally snap call for all my chips. A big stack decides to join the party with K/10 off suit????? I am in great shape with a small flop and a blank on the turn, but the river is a king, and two are gone, with me taking 7th money, and the taller stack taking 6th. Ouch!!! My next SNG is better, I just hang in with average chip count and end up winning it. The third is also a bitter win, with again last in the money. Overall though, a good day at poker. I even got to chat some with my friend, "Fickle River" and we tried to sign up together on a 9 person sng...he got in, and my entry was a second too late.

A late update for today: just played in an 18 person SNG and came in 10th when I called a late position raiser with my A2 to see AA10 on flop. He bet, I raised to find out where I was, and did not listen when he re raised me all-in. I expected Ace with bigger kicker, but worse he had pocket 10's for flopped under full. I was definitely not drawing dead with board pairing (anything but 10's, one ace, or a deuce. No such luck.

A Good Read

I finished reading Gus Hansen's new book, "Every Hand Revealed" in practically one sitting. It described his winning the Full Tilt "Aussie Millions" tournament in incredible detail, analyzing each hand, including his chip count, blind amounts, position, opponent(s), thought process, and results. I honestly do not understand how he accomplished this. I know that he carries a tape recorder and frequently can be seen talking into it, but this was amazing. What I found fascinating was his frequent successful raising with what I would consider trash hands. He seldom if ever limped in (a very good lesson), and nearly always raised from the button or one of the blinds if anyone limped. He also defended nearly every raise while in the blind with any two cards. What amazed me was his reading ability of the raisers and his ability to steal pots. He highly recommends stealing late in the tournament, or really any time. One good lesson I picked up from him was the "M" theory on stack size versus blinds. I have seen this before, but really did not think it through. It involves figuring how many revolutions of the blinds you have until you are in serious short stack trouble. The lowest figure is 3, meaning that if the blinds are say 200-400, it will take you 600 to get through the blinds, so 3 times 600 is 1800, meaning you must probably go all-in on your next playable hand if you have 1800 or less. You do not want to fall below this number as escalating blinds plus lack of chips make more hands callable by your opponents when you do push.

I really liked his concept of always being the aggressor, so I decided to try it in a couple of sit n go's on line rather than my more patient and tight approach. I will have to say that I will need more practice with this as I quickly busted out of the tournaments (once was pretty forgivable when I raised preflop with 10's, was called by pocket 3's, then pushed hard when the flop was an unconnected queen/something/3 flop. Ooops! I forgot the part when I analyzed his possible holdings and included a small pocket pair, not to mention the fact that queen beat me. I am not giving up on the more aggressive strategy as I think it is what you need to win the really big tournaments, but in the smaller one I will continue to play a little tight, but leave myself open for creative calls in the blinds and more stealing in late position.

Good Beats at the American Legion

I have been accused of whining too much about my bad beats, so this time I will take a fair and unbiased look at the Friday night tournament at the American Legion in Cannon Beach. I love this tournament, particularly now that smoking has been banned in clubs. I used to come home stinking of cigarette smoke and required to leave my clothes on the landing. Thanks to the new law I am enjoying it much more. To warm up for this tournament I played 3 sit n go's, bubbling two and coming in 2nd on the biggest one (27 person). I am employing my latest strategy which is to play tight and not get crazy stupid. A quick observation and resolution: whenever someone says to me, after I have raised, " I am going to put you all-in", I am going to fold just about every hand. The reason is that every time someone has said that, I am eliminated. Last night was a good example, sort of.

Anyway, back to the topic: Good Beats. The first one happened against the dealer, John. I raised pre-flop with KJ suited, which to me is a good hand not a great hand, but one that I see other players live and thrive with. John reraised me all in with pocket 9's and I had him well covered so I called. The flop had a 10, the turn an ace, and the river.....the queen for broadway! He was really angry and shoved the pot to me with a lot of force. I couldn't really understand his anger since I did have 6 outs preflop, and 10 on the turn. Oh well, it is nice not to have a distracted dealer trying to multi-task. The second beat (which was good for me, hence the good beat), was an all-in by a short stack, Jan, who had a weak ace (ace/3 offsuit). I was in the $800 big blind and it was only 700 more to me plus I had a good chip stack, so I called with 6/9 offsuit! The flop was super sweet, with both a 6 and a 9. The turn was a blank for Jan, and she was drawing dead to the river. My next victim was on the final table. I was 2nd in chips and feeling pretty good. Paul, on my right went all-in with pocket 5's and I quickly called with pocket 10's after asking him if he "had a monster hand". My 10's held up. Then I ran into trouble with pocket Jacks (are you listening Lynne?), I raised preflop 4 times the 1,000 blind and Kelly, a very quiet and unaggressive player, re-raised me all-in for 3,000 more. Rut Row!!! I had him well covered, and wouldn't be the short stack if I lost, so I called to see what else but pocket aces. Oh well. I recovered, took another player out and got back in the game. My downfall happened the big blind reached Eric, who had only 3000 of the 4000 blind. I had 11,000 and open/raised to 8,000 in middle position aiming to isolate Eric's blind, actually get a discount on my call, since I would get 1000 back on the side pot, and pick up the small blind with my pocket 5's. The only problem with my plan was that the small blind who had me covered woke up with pocket 9's. He asked, "how much more do you have, I will put you all-in". Since I only had 3,000 more, not enough for the big blind coming soon, I of course called. If I had gone all-in instead of betting 8,000 it would not have made any difference since he commented that he had pocket 9's the hand before and would have played them. Oh yes, we were down to 6 players and the tournament payed 6 spots and I was in the money, but would have come in 5th instead of 6th if Eric didn't win this pot. He spiked a queen (Q/5) on the river to take the main pot while the other player took our side pot.

Which brings me to the lesson. I just won't call most of the time when someone comments that he wants to put me all-in unless it makes sense from a pot odds standpoint. Also, another lesson is that I can be a stupid luckbox like a lot of other players when I go in with the worst hand and catch up.

Redemption at The Moose

I started my poker day with a warm-up omaha game online.  It did not go well, losing 2 1/2 buyins in about an hour.  So, my  confidence destroyed  now, I played in the live omaha tournament at the Cable Bridge Casino.  It was a very small tourney with only one table and one alternate.  I think I came in 6th, but who is counting?  Had a couple of huge draws,  one big pot with a nut low and nut flush draw, neither of which came in.  The worst player at the table (didn't play omaha, had no clue) naturally came in 3rd, while the 2nd worst (and worst "experienced" player) came in 2nd, while a very good player won.  There was a cash game starting, but several players had signed up for the 7:00 holdem tournament and I decided at the last minute to play it too.  My table broke down when a very lucky player knocked out 3 people...including the aforementioned 2nd worst omaha player.  I took a lot of chips from her on one hand, YES!!!!  The new table was not kind to me.  I only played two hands, the last one I was on the button with 3 limpers @ $400 blind.  I looked down at AK of clubs.  I raised pot ($2000) which left me with $1200 behind.  Question:  should I have just pushed it all-in?  Everyone folded except the cutoff who flat called with a big stack behind.  Hmmmm.  I immediately put him on a pair, but how big?  The flop came small with one club.  He bet $1000 which basically put me all-in.  I thought for a moment, decided I was definitely pot committed (what happened to my concept of seat committed?), and figured it was still a race, so I put the last of my chips in and he turned over...pocket 10's.  Still a race, which I lost.  Oh well, I think I would play it exactly the same next time as I don't want to face 5 hands, though I did have position and if one of the blinds wants to get frisky and push I can decide to call or not based on the number of callers or just go heads up with them.  

On to the Moose where I played squeaky tight.  How tight you ask?  Bought in for $50, and after one hour had not won a single pot and still had $30 in front of me.  That is very tight as you will spend $4.00 per round, or about $12. per hour if you don't play a single hand.  Anyway, won pot "A", then 15 minutes later chopped pot "B" with AQ, then immediately a third pot.  Got moved to the 4/8 table with about $80 and finished 3/12 hours later with $250 cash out.  My monster hand was pocket 5's on a capped preflop pot with a 3/4/5 flop with 2 diamonds.  Got chasers with pocket 10's and a flush draw and a 6 open end straight draw.  Unfortunately, when the board paired the 3 on the turn I raised and drove out two draws (the 10's stayed).  The problem was that I did not have the right opponents.. they were pretty savvy...plenty of others would have called the two bets or even raised.  The river brought a third heart and possible straight flush wheel...though you would have to be looking for monsters under the bed to believe the story when the 10's bet into me.  I just called cause he is a player that I like (he sells furniture....so we are sort of kindred), plus he told me later that he would not have called a raise anyway.  Nice pot, Sir!!!  No bad beats to report...thank goodness.

The $10/20 game was rowdy on the next table.  It is becoming entertaining to watch it.  The guy who mooned a few weeks ago got into a verbal altercation with "Dirt Farmer".  Glad it was not a full moon again, but you never know. 

Monte Carlo Week

This week has been my week for Montes at the Moose. On Sunday I flopped quad 3's for a $60 win, and yesterday quad 10's for $138. Other than that, uneventful with a loss Monday keeping me in the minus column. I was smart enough to quit while ahead $150 last night.

With the economy as bad as it is, it amazes me how busy the casino is. On Monday I was going there for lunch, but left because I couldn't find a parking place!!! My theory is that when things are bad, some people think that the only way out is to try for "the big win" rather than cutting back, saving as much as possible, working harder, etc. It is really insane to think that you can beat the casino. Poker is possible, but only because you are mainly against other players, but even then the rake takes so much that it is difficult to win without playing very tight. On the other hand, in a loose game you can't play too tight or you will never win. I am very close to calling this a no/win situation.

The weather here in the Tri-Cities has been strange. Heavy snowfall followed by Chinook winds to melt everything. The wind was brutal yesterday, big gusts. Some of the highways were closed to trucks.

Starting the New Year Right

A quick win in a 9 person SNG tournament and a small win on the 2/4 and 5/10 omaha live games and I am thinking optomistically about this year.