Sunday, June 10, 2012

Rational or Rationalizing?

One of my favorite quotes is, "Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal", according to science fiction writer, Robert Heinlein.  I am thinking that this explains my poker game.  Am I a good player who is often unlucky or a bad player who thinks he is good but actually makes some pretty bad plays.  Maybe the truth is somewhere inbetween.  I do know that I often play too fast despite telling myself before every tournament, "slow down, especially when going all-in".  Or, am I some kind of mad poker genius who can analzye previous actions by a player, subtle tells, and make decisions in a nanosecond?

Yesterday I was knocked out of the Joker's tournament when I called a raise from the small blind in my big blind with A/10 offsuit.  The flop was 5/5/10 and when the player shoved (had me well covered) I so instantly called with all my chips that she immediately said, "so you have a 5".  No, just top pair top kicker.  I am eliminated in 8th place.  In thinking about the hand, I definitely could have thrown away my top pair given the action and my chip count.  Subconsciously (or if genius applies) I remembered her raising a top pair hand off a big pot with an under-pair.  I also may have factored in (too quickly) the overbet.  Upon reflection (the rationalizing part of me), I think that she would have acted like that with an underpair to the 10 figuring the flop missed me.  That would be the following hands:

9/9, 8/8,7/7, 6/6 (not 5/5 as she would slow play this monster), 4/4, 3/3, and 2/2.  She would also slow play the flopped boat with 10/10, so that hand is eliminated.  She would also shove to protect her hand with J/J, Q/Q and K/K, but unlikely she has A/A, since I have one in my hand.  Also protective shoves if she is aggressive (which she is) with raising hands like K/J, K/Q, Q/J, A/K, A/Q, A/J, or even the same hand as mine A/10.   So, in short, given previous action, aggression factor, and raise/shove range I think not a horrible call, but perhaps so given my stack size....another factor.

Tell me what you think she had.  Will add a comment in a couple of days to let you know. 

4 comments:

Phil said...

forgot to say my chip size, probably around starting chip stack, 10K or so. Not the short stack at table but close.

7 Dewey said...

You also neglected to indicate what the blinds were - bad boy! Anyway I was hoping while reading that you would finally tell me what she had but you did not - phooey. It sounds like an overpair to me, jacks or queens maybe. She may also have raised with a lot of other hands. I think you need to follow Lynne's Rule #1 which is NEVER call a raise when holding A-10 unless you are 99% positive you have the best hand. I will stick with my guess of an overpair. Too bad you didn't have a five!

Phil said...

She had pocket aces......the overbet threw me off. Read my newest blog for an interesting tournament.

7 Dewey said...

Aha! I was right to guess an overpair, but I set my sights too low. Don't forget my Rule #1!!