One thing that you often hear around the poker table is a discussion about odds. Sometimes players will carefully count the money in the pot and then fold saying they "don't have the right odds to call", or "I had to call with the odds the pot was laying me". I heard a lot of that last night, and I generally respect these players as they are rational, thinking individuals who try to take the emotion (I feel lucky, or a lot of 8's have been hitting the flop, it's my favorite hand, etc.) out of their decision making process. Last night as running card dead and missing every flop, I was most definitely the tightest player on the table. Surviving with only $250 less than starting stack of 1400 and blinds at 50/100, a player made it $300. I had AK suited, so re-raised all-in for $1150. Normal players would factor in that it was the tightest player on the table and also calculate pot odds, but this player called the bet with his 6/6. Naturally I missed and was eliminated. He later knocked two all-in's out, both with 5/5 by calling with weak aces (A/8, and A/9), and also 10/10 with A/9. I saw good players folding AQ to re-raises all-in, and small pairs folding to big raises as well. This player was running good as they say and ended up chopping first and second. So what are the odds?
6/6 vs AK suited 52% vs. 48%
Since the player has no way of knowing this, it is possible that he is against a pair. So, there are 13 possible pairs (including the other 6/6). He is ahead of 5 of them, and behind 7 of them. If it is a smaller pair, his odds are 80% vs 20% in his favor, or 20% vs. 80% if the raiser has an overpair.
If the card is duplicated, say I have a 6 in my hand, then he becomes a 60% vs. 40% favorite.
So now, we have to look at the pot size. With limpers the pot is 50 + 100 + 300 + my 300 = 750. My raise to 1150 means that he must call an additional 850 into the 750 pot, giving him 88% equity. So, if he believes that my reraise is based on overcards, he will be right to call only if he wins more than 50% of the time. Since I will have an overpair some of the time, and an underpair some of the time, we must factor in that as well (I am getting a headache, are you?). So if I have the underpair, his call is brilliant, the overpair, not so much. Really, the only "good" call he can make in this scenario is me having an underpair, which given my tight play is not likely.
So, given this information, would you like to flip coins for a while with me? I will pay you $750 if you win, you pay me $850 if I win. Or maybe you would like to flip with me getting $80 and you getting $20? I think that factoring all of this in, there is no way I should have gotten a call here, as his best case scenario is worse than a break even. But some folks just don't think logically.
An argument could be made for me flat calling here and then shoving on the flop (there were 2 9's, so doubt it would have worked as he would not think I would shove trips but rather let him commit chips first). In any case, I believe that I played correctly and watched him make bad call after bad call and just plain get lucky.
6/6 vs AK suited 52% vs. 48%
Since the player has no way of knowing this, it is possible that he is against a pair. So, there are 13 possible pairs (including the other 6/6). He is ahead of 5 of them, and behind 7 of them. If it is a smaller pair, his odds are 80% vs 20% in his favor, or 20% vs. 80% if the raiser has an overpair.
If the card is duplicated, say I have a 6 in my hand, then he becomes a 60% vs. 40% favorite.
So now, we have to look at the pot size. With limpers the pot is 50 + 100 + 300 + my 300 = 750. My raise to 1150 means that he must call an additional 850 into the 750 pot, giving him 88% equity. So, if he believes that my reraise is based on overcards, he will be right to call only if he wins more than 50% of the time. Since I will have an overpair some of the time, and an underpair some of the time, we must factor in that as well (I am getting a headache, are you?). So if I have the underpair, his call is brilliant, the overpair, not so much. Really, the only "good" call he can make in this scenario is me having an underpair, which given my tight play is not likely.
So, given this information, would you like to flip coins for a while with me? I will pay you $750 if you win, you pay me $850 if I win. Or maybe you would like to flip with me getting $80 and you getting $20? I think that factoring all of this in, there is no way I should have gotten a call here, as his best case scenario is worse than a break even. But some folks just don't think logically.
An argument could be made for me flat calling here and then shoving on the flop (there were 2 9's, so doubt it would have worked as he would not think I would shove trips but rather let him commit chips first). In any case, I believe that I played correctly and watched him make bad call after bad call and just plain get lucky.
1 comment:
I believe the most of the people we play with don't think about this kind of stuff. Someone who wants to make their living at poker would definitely think about it or a serious tournament player. It sounds like you have some quality players in your AL game and, as you indicated, the guy just got lucky. It's why I'm a whiny bitch too!
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