Thursday, October 1, 2015

Death by Three Outer

Last night's Wheeler game was death by 3 outer for me.  I was playing squeaky tight (do many players actually recognize this?), so I am always super surprised to get some of the calls I get with my assumed range.  The first hand that got me was a raise in front of me by one of my deadly nemesis players.  He nearly always gets me, either with a worse hand that improves or a slightly better hand that holds up.  I check my cards and find KK.  I am now officially calling this hand Hamlet, as the king always gets killed.  I of course re-raise to isolate him.  He has me covered.  Then to my surprise a shorter stack shoves with fewer chips.  This is the player who snapped my aces a few weeks ago with his QQ that rivered quads.  We turn over our hands:

Nemesis:  9/9
Me:          K/K
Snapper:  A/Q

The observant and intelligent poker player will quickly see that I have exactly 6 outs against me, 3 for each player.  My winning percentage according to my handy dandy pocket odds program are:

Nemesis:  18%
Me:           58%
Snapper:   23%

With odd percentages and possible ties = 100%, I am still a favorite, but not as much as you might think.  The flop has an ace, followed by another ace on the turn and the worst starting hand wins hitting 2/3 of his outs.  I win the side pot, winning exactly $350 more than my initial shove, so I am pretty much back to where I started.  Snapper ends up on the final table with the chips he won.

We are down to almost the final table bubble, I have about 2000 with blinds at 150/300.  It is folded to me on the button.  I have Q/10 off which is a problematic situation.  This is too strong a hand in my opinion to fold on the button against two random blind hands.  Also, at least one of the players is a good, observant player who should recognize that I am a tight aggressive player.  So, I raise to 950.  The small blind (observant) asks me for a chip count.  I tell him 1200.  He ponders and finally folds.  The big blind, a fairly new player...couple of years...who overestimates their skill level snap calls.  The flop comes Q/9/5 with 2 spades.  Snap call tanks for several moments and finally checks.  I shove.  They now tank for even longer.  I am tempted to say something like, "Think about my range", or "Your ace is no good", or even, "I have a queen, I will show you", or probably best yet, "I think you have AJ, you would have re-raised me with AK or snap called with AQ.  I really do not want a call with a vulnerable hand but I know in my heart of hearts that they do not have an over pair or a queen so I am definitely ahead but do not want to lose my seat on a two or three outer.  They finally call and table AJ.  O.K., bad call but I am still nervous.  The turn is an ace of course and despite the jack on the river I fail to make a straight and am out.  Done in by the three outer again. 

1 comment:

7 Dewey said...

Unfortunately, you can never get rid of the idiots. Maybe you should loosen up a bit LOL.