Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Variance







I appreciate the comment about playing loose in the loose game, and to some extent that is true.  However, you must play tighter than most of the loose players and expect more variance.  What is variance?  It is simply the swings in your bankroll that you experience.  In a high variance game, like any loose game, you will see the very loose players amass vast amounts of chips while they happily crack aces with their crap hands and hit two pair playing any two suited cards, or make a really bad flush that holds up.

But, on the other side of the coin, these players will also suffer some real reversals of fortune, losing the big stacks they so easily accumulated.  On other days, they will buy in repeatedly trying to capture that magical day when all of their crap was successful.  They experience high variance, both from day to day and within a single session.

My goal by playing tight is to have very little variance.  I am happy to buy in for $100, play for 5 hours, have a "nice" meal and cash out for $150.  It may only be a $10 an hour win rate, but heck, that is better than minimum wage.  The best poker books say that you shouldn't expect to win much more that one or two big blinds per hour.

Great link below:
http://www.cardschat.com/poker-variance.php

6 comments:

7 Dewey said...

You make very good points & the article is quite good also. I've heard all this before. I think my main problem is that I get bored when I play that way. That is a personal fault that I need to work on. I agree that playing for hours, getting a meal & making a small profit is great. I think it's time for an attitude adjustment (me - not you). Happy Holidays to you and yours.

Phil said...

Boredom is the enemy of good poker. I have seen lots of poor play due to this. The secret is to just relax and watch if you are not getting good starting cards. Lately I have been watching the other players trying to pick up on tells and betting patterns when I see what they show down. It can help me when I am in a hand with them later. Also, you can entertain yourself with a book or electronic device...I like my Kindle to "while away the time".

7 Dewey said...

Yes, I know. I played in the Cable Bridge tournament last night & played a total of 4 hands in the first hour because I was getting crappy cards & I was trying to be good, but by the second hour I was so bored I started playing stupid again. Blah! I am finally joining the 21st century & getting an iphone soon so perhaps that will keep me occupied when bored.

Phil said...

Why not get a kindle fire instead? You can tap into the pokerroom's wifi and has better battery life to boot.

7 Dewey said...

Or I could simply bring a book. I am a firm believer in actual books and not e-readers. Silly I know.

Phil said...

It isn't just for the books. Games (try playing poker while you are playing poker sometime), movies, email, tv reruns (currently my favorite, West Wing), etc. Really, entertainment in the size of a book.