It never ceases to amaze me how people can put a significant portion of their chips in on a draw. Last night at the Legion we had just consolidated down to 2 tables (small turnout, only 24 to start). I pick up K/Q offsuit under the gun. I limp with a $120 call and about $1400 behind. There is one caller and the small blind completes and the big blind checks. The flop is king high with two hearts. When the small and big blind check, I bet $300 into the $480 pot with the limper calling and the others folding. A jack on the turn hits, and I go all-in for $1125, the pot is now $1080 plus my $1125 for a total of $2205. With some dumb remark about "probably shouldn't call" one of the worst players indeed calls with his A/3 of hearts and approximate pot odds of 2/1. Of course, the heart hits the river and I am gone.
I did some analysis using the poker hand calculator on my Droid and discovered:
Preflop I was 47.5% to 45% to win (not counting other players...just heads up against A/3
Turn I was 62.3% to 26.3% to win.
His 2/1 call was not horrible, since he had me covered, don't recall how many chips he had. My mistakes were: 1. I think the big blind was going to bet on the flop, but I acted too soon with my $300 (I thought it was check/check to me). If he bets first here, I would have come over the top all in and probably forced the flush draw to fold since he had the first bettor to worry about too.
2. I think an all in bet on the flop would have been the superior play, since I am down to 10 big blinds and probably in to the river irregardless of any action.
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