One of the leaks in my game is my failure to recognize and utilize the "thin value bet". That is the situation when you have either been the lead bettor or have called with your draw and you reach the river. My tendency is to check the river without the nuts. Clearly, this is a time when you should bet for value with a hand that has been in the lead all the way or has reached its goal. The types of hands and boards that I tend to check are highly coordinated boards, either straight or flush possibilities, hitting my flush but it is not a nut, or when I have a top pair, medium strength kicker kind of hand. Some examples are:
On a flop of K/4/9, me holding KJ, I bet and get a couple of callers. Turn is a 5, I bet and get the same callers. River is a 10, it is checked to me and I usually check back. Why? Because the JQ or K10 just beat me, as well as the K9 letting me bet their hand all the way. This is a situation ripe for a check raise and I just don't want to lose the river bet plus pay off the check raise as well. Not betting saves me $40 in the 2/20 spread game, but costs me at least $20 if I get called by K/x suited that has only top pair, or even some
pocket pairs that failed to improve. Note that if I "improve" to 2 pair with a jack on the river instead of the 10, the gutshot Q/10 just made the nuts. A very tough proposition indeed, but with this one example you can see the dilemma.
The players in the pot, and my position also have a lot to do with my decision. For instance, a well known check raiser like Anh is someone I never try to value bet because he loves to slow play his big hands and squeeze that extra bet out of you. I have disappointed him several times this way. On the other hand, if it is a known bluffer coming out at you when the scare card hits, I will sometimes raise him, even on a rebluff. They will often fold a hand that might have beaten you. Usually they do this for only 2 reasons: the first to bluff or semi-bluff, the second for pot control, reasoning that they are going to call your bet anyway and there is some fold equity in betting.
When I see someone betting (and winning) with middle or even bottom pair I am not sure if witnessing genius poker or someone who has phenomenal card reading skills, or just a clueless donk who is trying to represent a bigger hand than he actually possesses or believes that he has a good hand. With some players it is hard to tell, yet I see it all the time particularly when the player has raised preflop with a small pair.
Here is a helpful chart and the article I took it from:
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/general/thin-value/
On a flop of K/4/9, me holding KJ, I bet and get a couple of callers. Turn is a 5, I bet and get the same callers. River is a 10, it is checked to me and I usually check back. Why? Because the JQ or K10 just beat me, as well as the K9 letting me bet their hand all the way. This is a situation ripe for a check raise and I just don't want to lose the river bet plus pay off the check raise as well. Not betting saves me $40 in the 2/20 spread game, but costs me at least $20 if I get called by K/x suited that has only top pair, or even some
pocket pairs that failed to improve. Note that if I "improve" to 2 pair with a jack on the river instead of the 10, the gutshot Q/10 just made the nuts. A very tough proposition indeed, but with this one example you can see the dilemma.
The players in the pot, and my position also have a lot to do with my decision. For instance, a well known check raiser like Anh is someone I never try to value bet because he loves to slow play his big hands and squeeze that extra bet out of you. I have disappointed him several times this way. On the other hand, if it is a known bluffer coming out at you when the scare card hits, I will sometimes raise him, even on a rebluff. They will often fold a hand that might have beaten you. Usually they do this for only 2 reasons: the first to bluff or semi-bluff, the second for pot control, reasoning that they are going to call your bet anyway and there is some fold equity in betting.
When I see someone betting (and winning) with middle or even bottom pair I am not sure if witnessing genius poker or someone who has phenomenal card reading skills, or just a clueless donk who is trying to represent a bigger hand than he actually possesses or believes that he has a good hand. With some players it is hard to tell, yet I see it all the time particularly when the player has raised preflop with a small pair.
Here is a helpful chart and the article I took it from:
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/general/thin-value/
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