Wednesday night poker at the Bayway. Dealing table 3 I am running very good, up at least almost double starting chips when this hand happens. In the big blind with Q/5 of hearts and one limper, the small blind, a very short stack of around $250 shoves (blinds no bigger than 25/50). This is a pretty easy call for me as the limper is "Old Pete" who is tighter than a nun's yoohoo and I figure will fold leaving me heads up with a decent pot odds and probably live cards possibly ahead of his range. Nope, Pete calls. The flop is my dream, 2/3/4 with 2 hearts, giving me the open end straight draw, second nut flush draw, even a runner runner straight flush draw. I check and to my surprise, Pete bets $200. I call, seeing no way this hits Pete's range, putting him on maybe A/K. He is not prone to bluff, but this seems logical. The turn is a brick, and now Pete bets $300. Yikes, I am now thinking overpair but my draws are still live and according to my odds calculator I still am getting at least 3/1 on my money. The river is a queen, I now have two busted draws and top pair. I again check and Pete again bets, 200. I call and he tables A/A. Player down and Pete rakes a nice pot.
Later in the game, we are down to 14 players when I shove from middle position (one limper) my pathetic short stack of $725 (blinds at 100-200), with Q/J. This is the only face card hand I have had in a round or two. All folds except the limper who calls from his biggish stack with 5/5. So, I am coin flipping for my life and on the short end of the 53/47 odds. The flop is great for me, 9/10/x, giving me 14 outs, or a slight advantage. The turn and river brick and I am out.
So, this brings me to the sad proposition of why I can't connect with my huge draws? And, an even more perplexing question, when I hit my draws why do I lose? Playing in the Tri-Cities recently I final tabled two tournaments. I was eliminated on coin tosses when I hit my hand (A/J on one, K/Q on the other) when my opponents then hit their 2 outers with medium pairs. To be objective, the pair always has a very small advantage to the overcards, but one would think that when the drawing hand hits and the odds are way against the pair that it would hold up. Oh well, tonight another chance.
Later in the game, we are down to 14 players when I shove from middle position (one limper) my pathetic short stack of $725 (blinds at 100-200), with Q/J. This is the only face card hand I have had in a round or two. All folds except the limper who calls from his biggish stack with 5/5. So, I am coin flipping for my life and on the short end of the 53/47 odds. The flop is great for me, 9/10/x, giving me 14 outs, or a slight advantage. The turn and river brick and I am out.
So, this brings me to the sad proposition of why I can't connect with my huge draws? And, an even more perplexing question, when I hit my draws why do I lose? Playing in the Tri-Cities recently I final tabled two tournaments. I was eliminated on coin tosses when I hit my hand (A/J on one, K/Q on the other) when my opponents then hit their 2 outers with medium pairs. To be objective, the pair always has a very small advantage to the overcards, but one would think that when the drawing hand hits and the odds are way against the pair that it would hold up. Oh well, tonight another chance.
4 comments:
The nightmare continues. Eliminated last night when my pocket 9's raise is called by only one player with Q/A. Flop is queen high, I shove small stack. Gone.
Just the probabilities f---ing with you. Hang in there.
Had the same thing happen to me 3 weeks ago. I've got the nut flush draw and an open ended straight draw on the flop. That's million outs right? I end up all in, I wiff, the board pairs on the river and my opponent ends up with a boat. Heavy sigh. Next time.
Sir, you are preaching to the choir. If I have 14+ outs I just know I'm not going to hit any of them. It creates negativity in my mind and irritates me no end.
A note on your pocket 9's: not sure where you were in relation to number of blinds, but my personal preference would be to limp with any pair lower than 10s (depending on situation naturally) and then it's the old flop it or drop it. Perhaps you had no choice.
Better luck in future!!
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