The Three Elements (of Winning Poker)

Thinking this morning about just what the heck it does take to win at poker.  I came up with the three key elements (are there more?) of skill, luck, and cards.  Some might argue that cards could be included with either/and luck or skill, but would like to make a case about that idea. The three elements often merge in the game.  So, here are the 3 elements:

1. Cards
While a case can be made that skillful playing can overcome being dealt bad cards, we all know the sometimes brief sense of exhilaration when we take a peek and see the glory of AA.  Also, we have lurking in the back of our minds all of the times our aces have been cracked, or the times we have cracked them with lesser holdings.  Yet, who among us would not like to be dealt aces every hand, assuming that all the other players suffered from short term memory loss and could not remember that you got them the last 27 hands?  I would propose that if that situation arose, you would win every tournament and make lots of money in cash games.  Sure, you would lose some hands but you would double up so often it would not matter.  You might even find yourself folding sometimes post flop (here is where the skill kicks in).  So, cards matter.  We have all had those terrible days when we just keep looking at 2/7 off and it is fold, fold, and fold.  I played in a $1500 WSOP bracelet event and over the course of 11 hours was dealt only 6 pocket pairs, the largest being 10/10.  I would argue that it would be difficult for the most highly skilled players on the planet to win with those cards.

Another element of the cards is the flop.  Again, luck enters the picture as your unraised 2/7 big blind hand could flop quads, full houses, straight, or trips.  We know that the worst of hands can develop into monsters if we make it to the river like my hand last week that made a 1 card "steel wheel" .  I would argue that any hand can make a monster, or any monster (AA), can be destroyed or created on the flop.  Does this mean we play loose and hope for the great flop?  Yes and no.  If position and/or pot odds dictates it, yes.  Playing loose under the gun, not so much.  Again, an element is skill that plays a part.  Skill is reading the opponents, playing position strongly, aggressive play that negates poor cards.  All of that said, give me kings and aces and I will win more tournaments.

2.  Luck
Personally, my luck has been below par lately.  Coin flips are a huge part of winning poker and you just gotta win them at crucial times.  We are all put to this test every tournament, and I have been getting an "F" on this most of the time.  An element of skill does come into play, as we are not always forced into flips, but sometimes enter them voluntarily at the wrong time.  When is the wrong time?  My opinion is early in a tournament, which means that late is when I want to get my money in flipping.  Think about it, why risk your tournament life on luck?  You have 7/7, and someone goes all-in pre-flop.  Yes you probably have the best hand here, but with 30 big blinds you do not need to gamble that they are shoving with 3/3 (most likely if you pay attention to when these guys show....and they often do), or just have bad luck with AQ and want to pick up blinds.  Late in the tournament you must make these calls if you are short stacked, and use discretion if one of the bigger ones.

Luck manifests itself in several ways.  The cards you are dealt, the flops, turns and rivers that come, and probably most importantly the matchups you get.  We have all experience the magical luck of perfect matchups, set over set, boat over boat, pair over pair, small vs. large straight, and flush over flush.  These are the dream matchups that practically insure that all your chips are going into the pot.  On the other side of the coin, sometimes we get great flops but cannot find an opposing hand that can make a call.  Or, sometimes worse, your monster hand making a small pre-flop raise and seeing everyone fold.  Skill works its way into this equation as I really do believe that more skillful players get more out of their big hands than others.  It has to do with bet sizing, deceptive play, and table image.

Sometimes luck just boils down to getting the miracle one or two outer on the river.  Been there, done that.  Best not to put yourself in that position, but hey, we all experience it.  Funny how sometimes we can catch that lightning in a bottle but other times cannot find our butt with two hands.  I have heard many players say that cannot catch a 15 outer but have better luck with a gutshot draw.  Odds be damned!!!  I still remember the matchup with "Big Joe" on the final 2 tables for the Wildhorse Roundup tournament entry into every event prize.  I was running good, confidence high, crushing the game, 3rd or 4th in chips, when my AQ suited ran into a call by QJ off.  The flop was QJ10, J/10 suited, giving me the royal flush draw, any king for a straight, any ace for a better 2 pair.  Let's count the outs, 9 clubs, 3 aces, 3 kings (one already counted in clubs).  Could I find just one?  No.  Could this player have fewer chips?  No.  (Bad matchup).  Let's add in bad play as my flop bet was raised, and then 3 bet all-in by me on this 51/49 coin flip (I check the odds, thought I had better).

3.  Skill
Overall, skill encompasses several areas.   Consider pre-flop play, do you raise, re-raise, call or fold?  On the flop are you betting, calling a bet, re-raising or folding?  Skill comes from the wise choices we make using our reads, our image, our position, our draws, our chip count, etc.  Skill also enters into our bluffs.  Do we choose wisely given our position, our chip stack, our image, our opponent?  Hopefully we are skillful enough not to try to bluff the calling station or the loose deep stack.