The Three Elements (of Winning Poker)

Thinking this morning about just what the heck it does take to win at poker.  I came up with the three key elements (are there more?) of skill, luck, and cards.  Some might argue that cards could be included with either/and luck or skill, but would like to make a case about that idea. The three elements often merge in the game.  So, here are the 3 elements:

1. Cards
While a case can be made that skillful playing can overcome being dealt bad cards, we all know the sometimes brief sense of exhilaration when we take a peek and see the glory of AA.  Also, we have lurking in the back of our minds all of the times our aces have been cracked, or the times we have cracked them with lesser holdings.  Yet, who among us would not like to be dealt aces every hand, assuming that all the other players suffered from short term memory loss and could not remember that you got them the last 27 hands?  I would propose that if that situation arose, you would win every tournament and make lots of money in cash games.  Sure, you would lose some hands but you would double up so often it would not matter.  You might even find yourself folding sometimes post flop (here is where the skill kicks in).  So, cards matter.  We have all had those terrible days when we just keep looking at 2/7 off and it is fold, fold, and fold.  I played in a $1500 WSOP bracelet event and over the course of 11 hours was dealt only 6 pocket pairs, the largest being 10/10.  I would argue that it would be difficult for the most highly skilled players on the planet to win with those cards.

Another element of the cards is the flop.  Again, luck enters the picture as your unraised 2/7 big blind hand could flop quads, full houses, straight, or trips.  We know that the worst of hands can develop into monsters if we make it to the river like my hand last week that made a 1 card "steel wheel" .  I would argue that any hand can make a monster, or any monster (AA), can be destroyed or created on the flop.  Does this mean we play loose and hope for the great flop?  Yes and no.  If position and/or pot odds dictates it, yes.  Playing loose under the gun, not so much.  Again, an element is skill that plays a part.  Skill is reading the opponents, playing position strongly, aggressive play that negates poor cards.  All of that said, give me kings and aces and I will win more tournaments.

2.  Luck
Personally, my luck has been below par lately.  Coin flips are a huge part of winning poker and you just gotta win them at crucial times.  We are all put to this test every tournament, and I have been getting an "F" on this most of the time.  An element of skill does come into play, as we are not always forced into flips, but sometimes enter them voluntarily at the wrong time.  When is the wrong time?  My opinion is early in a tournament, which means that late is when I want to get my money in flipping.  Think about it, why risk your tournament life on luck?  You have 7/7, and someone goes all-in pre-flop.  Yes you probably have the best hand here, but with 30 big blinds you do not need to gamble that they are shoving with 3/3 (most likely if you pay attention to when these guys show....and they often do), or just have bad luck with AQ and want to pick up blinds.  Late in the tournament you must make these calls if you are short stacked, and use discretion if one of the bigger ones.

Luck manifests itself in several ways.  The cards you are dealt, the flops, turns and rivers that come, and probably most importantly the matchups you get.  We have all experience the magical luck of perfect matchups, set over set, boat over boat, pair over pair, small vs. large straight, and flush over flush.  These are the dream matchups that practically insure that all your chips are going into the pot.  On the other side of the coin, sometimes we get great flops but cannot find an opposing hand that can make a call.  Or, sometimes worse, your monster hand making a small pre-flop raise and seeing everyone fold.  Skill works its way into this equation as I really do believe that more skillful players get more out of their big hands than others.  It has to do with bet sizing, deceptive play, and table image.

Sometimes luck just boils down to getting the miracle one or two outer on the river.  Been there, done that.  Best not to put yourself in that position, but hey, we all experience it.  Funny how sometimes we can catch that lightning in a bottle but other times cannot find our butt with two hands.  I have heard many players say that cannot catch a 15 outer but have better luck with a gutshot draw.  Odds be damned!!!  I still remember the matchup with "Big Joe" on the final 2 tables for the Wildhorse Roundup tournament entry into every event prize.  I was running good, confidence high, crushing the game, 3rd or 4th in chips, when my AQ suited ran into a call by QJ off.  The flop was QJ10, J/10 suited, giving me the royal flush draw, any king for a straight, any ace for a better 2 pair.  Let's count the outs, 9 clubs, 3 aces, 3 kings (one already counted in clubs).  Could I find just one?  No.  Could this player have fewer chips?  No.  (Bad matchup).  Let's add in bad play as my flop bet was raised, and then 3 bet all-in by me on this 51/49 coin flip (I check the odds, thought I had better).

3.  Skill
Overall, skill encompasses several areas.   Consider pre-flop play, do you raise, re-raise, call or fold?  On the flop are you betting, calling a bet, re-raising or folding?  Skill comes from the wise choices we make using our reads, our image, our position, our draws, our chip count, etc.  Skill also enters into our bluffs.  Do we choose wisely given our position, our chip stack, our image, our opponent?  Hopefully we are skillful enough not to try to bluff the calling station or the loose deep stack.

Sweet, Sweet Victory

My poker life this year has been very disappointing.  I have been plagued with bad beats, making the final tables often but with few chips, and then finding a new way to lose.  I mentioned in the last blog that my "too tight" thing might not be working.  So, determined to loosen my game up some and also ramp up my aggression, last night it paid off for me with a win at Wheeler.  The highlights included making a very good call and a couple of good folds.

The good call came fairly early.  Playing a J/5 from the unraised big blind, the flop came J/4/4.  I bet out and was called.  The turn was a 10, putting 2 diamonds on the board.  I bet again, bigger, and was called again.  The river brought a third diamond, the 5, giving me 3 pair.  I checked, he bet big, and I thought it through.  Did he runner runner a flush?  Don't think so.  Was he slow playing an A/4?  Maybe, but think the 2nd diamond would have elicited a re-raise on the turn.  My final conclusion was that he had a jack with a good kicker, but that I had just beaten him with my better two pair.  Call!!!!  He turns over KJ for the losing 2 pair hand.  The player to my left gave me a nice compliment.

One frustrating hand was on the final table.  I was in the big blind (150/300), when the UTG min-raised.  With one caller (small blind), I considered calling with my 8/9 off, but he is a fairly solid player and with bad position decided to fold.  Bad fold.  The flop came 9/9/x and was checked.  The turn was another 9, which would have given me quads, he bet all-in, she folded.  I moaned audibly, and he said, "I had a full house".  Yep, and you would have lost all your chips.

We discussed chopping at various points, but the chip leader was dead set against it, even later when he was about the same stack as the remaining players.  He was playing lucky and aggressive, winning a couple of big pots when his bluffs went astray and were called, only to suck out.  He was talking smack to the end about how he was going to win.  Heads up he had me severely outchipped and he was playing aggressively.  I played back at him and won a big pot to draw us even.  The final hand was his move all-in with J/8, my call with Q/9.  I hit the Q on the flop but also a 10 came.  If I hit my 9 he would have beaten me with a straight. A king hit the turn, and  I begged the dealer not to give me two pair, but she did anyway when a king rivered, giving me the winning 2 pair, kings and queens.  Whew, always a sweat.

My loyal reader Don (how about more comments?  Be more like 7 Dewey!!!), asked me to elaborate something we talked about.  Basically, it was playing more aggressively by always raising if first to enter the pot.  If there were multiple limpers, it is o.k. to call, but raising helps to thin the field, and buy better position by getting later players to fold.  Also, if someone open raises before you, the best plays are to re-raise or fold.  A call is usually not the right play here.  That is about it, read a short article about this which is linked below.  I was already trying this, so just reinforced my idea.  Nothing earth shattering, just solid advice.

  http://thepokeracademy.com/aggression-leads-to-position/

Conversations at Home Depot

The fake rock on the foundation of my house fell off during construction repairs 2 years ago.  I kind of hate it anyway, so I painted the south side black.  Unfortunately it extends around to the front, and matches the rock on the driveway entry.  So, I needed to repair it.  That led to a trip to Home Depot where I wandered aimlessly in the construction materials area until I bumped into an American Legion poker regular shopping for ladders.  We chatted for a few minutes about poker and I of course whined about my latest bad beats.  He said, "You play too tight".  I argued a bit about this, saying that of course I do bluff and perhaps craftily was using my tight image to steal pots.  We talked some about the "value" of advertising by showing your hand featuring the nuts.  Lately my argument is that no one should ever show a hand unless called under penalty of buying the entire table a drink.

So, thinking of being a tight player brought up the words of "China Bob", who claimed that he did not play "tight", but played "right".  He is one of the tightest players in the morning crew who are nearly all basically as tight as bark on a tree.  That got me thinking about the wisdom of tight play.  Tight/aggresive play has always seemed to be the best route to poker success, but it seems that the game has evolved into loose calls with trash hands that snap the big holdings with some regularity.  Lost a bunch of chips this morning playing a SNG with AQ raise and call by K9 off.  Could not get the king high flop to fold despite my big chip stack and repeated bets.  So much for big bluffs!  But seriously, how do these players rationalize calling big raises from the tightest player at the table?  Implied odds????

Every once in a while, I try playing loose/aggressive poker and honestly have had some mixed success.  Raises UTG with medium suited connectors, QJ, and such with decent continuation bets have often paid off.  Humph.


 

Why I Hate The Pendleton Poker Roundup

Yesterday morning I cooked eggs for the monthly American Legion fundraiser breakfast.  One of our customers was a poker player from the Friday night game.  During a "lull" in the cooking I chatted with him for a bit.  He mentioned the poker roundup and his plans to attend.  That got me to thinking about all of the bad beats I have suffered there.  If you have previously suffered from a post about this topic, I apologize.  Just too lazy to go through all of them to find it.  So here they are, not in any particular order:

1.  Turned a straight (which was due to be chopped with another player, who jammed it), we were both rivered by a random 2 pair hand that filled up.
2.  Shoved from the big blind pre-flop with A/A, and was called by 3 limpers.  Flop was paired, checked to river, and won by AJ hitting a flush.
3.  Turned a queen high straight, all-in called, beaten by the two pair which filled up on the river.
4.  Flopped top pair with flush draw.  Beaten by flopped top set when flush did not come in.
5.  Same player, the next year (some random "pro" woman), hit her straight on the river against my flopped 2 pair.
6.  Lost with AQ vs. AK on an ace high flop.

So by my calculations, I have lost over $1000 where I got my money in good.  No wonder I am sour on Wildhorse.  My best day there was the Omaha game where I won over $500 on one hand.  Still love the picture of those chips:) .

Stupid Things To Do in Poker

We are all guilty, I believe, at some time or another doing stupid things at the poker table.  Was thinking of a few this morning.

1.  Chasing straights and flushes with insufficient odds.
2.  Chasing flushes and straights on a paired board, particularly against big bets/insufficient odds.  This is more true in omaha than hold em, but I think both apply.
3.  Playing big/little cards because they are suited.  Particularly if the highest one is a queen or worse.
4. Calling with all your chips too quickly.  My new rule is counting to 20.
5.  Shoving with small/medium pairs when there is no money in the pot and you have 20+ blinds.  Example, blinds at 2nd level, you are under the gun with 4/4.
6. Making "crying calls" when you are obviously beat.
7.  Overcalling called shoves with hands that are "obviously" behind, prime example my 6/6 of last week, and even worse, KJ overcalling that.
8.  Trying to bluff calling stations.
9.  Betting amounts that price players in.  Examples:  Min-bet semi-scary board with top pair (say 2 of a suit or 2 to a straight on the board), Min-raising from blinds after several players have limped in.
10.  Folding too often to a frequent button raiser.
11.  Failing to recognize when you are pot committed.
12.  Failing to recognize when you are not pot committed.
13.  Calling or raising small rather than shoving when you are in the red zone.
14.  Trying to trap multiple limpers with premium hands (failing to raise).
15.  Playing this stupid game.  

Road Trip

I really miss playing poker in the Tri-Cities.  For one thing, it has omaha cash games available 3 days a week.  Also, with multiple casinos there are always tournaments or hold em cash games going.  And, more importantly, I have a lot of poker friends there as well as other friends.  So, Friday morning I packed up and headed over to Pasco.  Arriving fairly early in the afternoon was able to visit my friend Bob, drop my stuff off at Ron's and get to Joker's in time for the omaha game at 6:00.  Bob was able to join me there and was seated to my immediate left.  Good times.  Bob is an excellent omaha player and showed lots of patience early unlike me who was in virtually every pot, and losing most of them.  Later Bob caught on fire and cashed out up over $200.  I eventually got hot, but too late as many players had left and short handed omaha is not easy to make money.  Stuck $117 after 5 hours of play when the table broke down.

The next day was back to back tournaments with my buddy Dewey at 8:00 and 10:00.  Managed to break even on the first one by bubbling in 4th, but no cash in the second one.

Final tournament, the $60 buy-in Sunday 10:00.  Most notable hands, raised in early position with AQ, lots of limp/callers.  Ace high flop I bet out, am raised all-in by a shorter stack with AK.  Now short (2400 with blinds @ 300/600) it gets raised to 4000 by the biggest stack at the table.  Dewey, sitting on my right calls all-in for 3800.  I have 6/6 and figure to give my bounty to Dewey or hope to see AQ and AK.  To my surprise, after my call, the 2nd biggest stack also shoves.  The original raiser calls him and still has chips.  We turn over in order, 9/9, 10/10, 6/6, and KJ.  Three pots are formed and the board runs with small cards and a 6 on the river.  I win the main pot, Dewey the first side, and the big stack the 3rd pot.  But, this takes about 10 minutes as the dealer combines two pots and gives to me, then the floor has to recreate all of the action.  Glad I am not the dealer as no way do I remember who had how much to start.  Ironically, the 9/9 wins the bounty as he is the only one covering the other big stack. Now in decent shape with 10,500, I move to the outer table and end up losing a coin flip AK vs. 8/8.  I was just lucky to get that far.

All in all a good trip, visiting some friends, playing some poker.  Life is good.   

Mis-Playing The Player

There is an adage in poker, that it is a people game played with cards.  I llike that idea.  If you frequently play with the same folks you have a pretty good idea how they play, including tendencies and tells.  Many times you are far better off by playing the player rather than playing your cards.

Last night I got caught mis-playing the player.  Our resident pro was on the button with me in the big blind with 5/2.  He is an aggressive and tricky player, so when he open limped on the button I should have clicked in the tricky part when he did not raise.  I enjoyed a big stack, probably 2nd or 3rd at the table so perhaps that was why?  I know that he "credits" me for being "a tight ass player" as he has called me that, as well as folding big bets to my 3 bets.  So, when the flop came down A/A/5, my immediate thought was that I had the best hand.  I checked, he bet, I called. The turn was a 9, I led out as my earlier call screamed strength, and he flat called.  With around 1200 remaining in my stack, and 750 in his, I shoved the river when a jack came.  He called, saying "If you have AJ, you got me", and showing A9 for the full house.  I sheepishly folded.

Knowing what I know about him and his assessment of my game, I think I would probably play the same way the next time, perhaps factoring in "trickiness" more.  Later on I saw him lose a big chunk of my chips calling down a board with 2 kings....he didn't have one, but the other guy did.  They seemed to have some history, with Pro calling him his nemesis.

My remaining chips were lost on my shove with A/10 middle position (450 chips, blinds at 75/150), to the big blind who is definitely the most conservative tight player in our game. He would fold anything but huge ace or big pairs.  Rut Row!, he had me dominated with AK.