Variance

I appreciate the comment about playing loose in the loose game, and to some extent that is true.  However, you must play tighter than most of the loose players and expect more variance.  What is variance?  It is simply the swings in your bankroll that you experience.  In a high variance game, like any loose game, you will see the very loose players amass vast amounts of chips while they happily crack aces with their crap hands and hit two pair playing any two suited cards, or make a really bad flush that holds up.

But, on the other side of the coin, these players will also suffer some real reversals of fortune, losing the big stacks they so easily accumulated.  On other days, they will buy in repeatedly trying to capture that magical day when all of their crap was successful.  They experience high variance, both from day to day and within a single session.

My goal by playing tight is to have very little variance.  I am happy to buy in for $100, play for 5 hours, have a "nice" meal and cash out for $150.  It may only be a $10 an hour win rate, but heck, that is better than minimum wage.  The best poker books say that you shouldn't expect to win much more that one or two big blinds per hour.

Great link below:
http://www.cardschat.com/poker-variance.php

Have I finally figured out the cash game?

Wow, I could get used to this.  Last night I won $120 in the 2/20 game.  My secret?  If I told you it would no longer be a secret would it?  O.K. since you are pressuring me, here it is:  I play super squeaky tight.  When I say tight, this is what I mean.  Folding 99% of hands in early position.  This includes connectors, suited or not, weak aces (described as anything worse than AJ...and that hand must be suited), I am raising with big pairs or AK, limping with small pairs which I will fold to big raises (more than $5).  Late position am open to more hands including suited connectors, weak aces if there are tons of limpers.....otherwise they are probably folds.  Also, folding nearly all small blinds, even with the whole table limping.  I did not see a single hand that I would have won from small blind,  and the $3 and hour you spend does add up.  Also, folded nearly all straddles, even from the big blind with reasonable hands.  Again, lots of straddles, so saved quite a bit.  My attitude is well known about straddles and even got up once to prevent "La Thief" from doing it to my big blind.  Ha-Ha!  If I have a "real" hand with a straddle on, will always raise $20.

Some examples of hands that I limped with...and folded post flop:  AK, QQ....both from the blinds with a lot of limpers.  These are hands that I want to see a flop cheap and either dump or pump according to the board.  Saved me a lot of money.

My aces were snapped once.....short stack with 5/5 insisted on calling his last $18 on small flop with a gutshot....which he hit.

My biggest pot was A/9 suited in late position, calling a small (frequent) raiser who had A/2 suited.  Flop was A/9/2 and he insisted on raising and re-raising me on every street.  I got my whole stack in good and doubled up.

Bottom line is this:  Extreme tight play is working for me where nothing else has.  My variance is way down and have had profitable days the last three sessions.  The old adage:  play loose in a tight game, and tight in a loose game is very true.  And, by nature, the 2/20 at the Moose is as loose a game as I have ever seen.  Lots of gamblers, donks, aggression, dumb calls, calling stations, chasers, ATC's, etc.  The only way to beat that is to only enter pots under great conditions:  last to play, very strong cards, good reads.

Close, but no cigar

Playing this morning in the Moose tournament started really well, winning 3 of the first 4 hands dealt.  Chipped up nicely, knocking two players out when I was dealt back to back aces.  Also got lucky against a weak ace who called my BB raise with KK when he spiked an ace, but I runnered a straight.

Final table, bad early seat draw and average chip stack.  Because there were tons of alternates, the blinds were big on the FT, starting at 500/1000.  With only 3,000 and blinds at 1/2000 and in the big blind, I have A/8 suited.  Another player, on the button, shoves his last 3000 with A/5 offsuit.  The big stack at the table calls with A/3 and we are 3 way all-in.  The A/5 catches a 5 on the river and I am out in 7th place.  Really bad luck as there was a 7 on the flop with 2 big cards, and my kicker plays if small cards and/or an ace hits, otherwise we are looking at chop chop 3 ways.

Anyway, too bad cause with as many players in the tourney, they would have paid at least 4 places, so just missed the money.

More Like It

Well, this is more like it.  Playing the "Morning Moose" today I tripled up on the second hand when my queen high flush knocked out two players, one with a jack high flush, the other with 2 pair.  I like to believe that I am really dangerous when I chip up early, but that is not really true.  I still try to play my own game, loosening up only slightly.  When our table broke I began giving chips back, but got lucky with an all-in of A/6 suited vs. A/K suited when I spiked the 6.  I was destined to get lucky once more when down to 4 players on the final table I knocked out 2 with my 7/7 vs. A/Q & J/J.  Managed to hit a 7 for my second flopped set of the tournament.  With the chip lead heads up we agreed to chop for $240 each!!!

Playing for just a short time on the cash table I added another $30 to my winnings.  My best outing for a week, glad to quit ahead.

Idiot!!!!

O.K., so I am on a major "cooler", as opposed to a "heater".  I can accept that fact.  But what I cannot accept is that I am a certifiable imbecile.  Playing in the Steve Stark tournament this afternoon I was on cruise control.  Getting some decent cards, playing them pretty well, chipping up.  Reaching the final table with a great chip stack, we got down to 5 players, 2 with short stacks, and two bigger stacks than mine.  Then, this hand came up.

Under the gun, with blinds at 1,000/2000, I limp with K/10.  The small blind completes, the big blind, the chip leader, checks.  The flop is J//8/x, with 2 diamonds.  It is checked to me, and I bet 2000.  Small blind, 2nd chip leader calls.  The turn is a 10, and for some unexplainable reason I believe that I now have a straight.  When is is checked to me, I go all in.  The opponent quickly calls after looking at the board for a minute.

She tables the Q/9 for the straight and I am looking for a queen on the river for the king high straight.  Nope, I am gone in 5th place instead of cruising into the money (paid 3 places).  Idiot!!!!  

Worst Table In The World

Nightmare table last night at the Moose.  Dirt Farmer raising early & often, usually with garbage.  Joe calling every big raise with his garbage.  Lucky players to my right and left, who both were raising very light.  Here are some beat examples:

Dirt raises with ???, I have pocket 10's including the 10 diamonds, Joe calls.  Flop is 8/9/J diamonds.  I have open ended straight flush draw with only one possible overpair (not including pocket pairs).  Dirt bets $7, I raise to $27, Joe calls, Dirt folds.  Turn is another diamond, Joe wins with king of diamonds.

I have 8/Q in big blind, lucky donk (horrible player), limps in with 8/5 offsuit 2 UTG (great choice).  Flop is 8 high, I bet $5, he raises to $15, I call.   Turn pairs 3's, I check, he bets $20, I call.  River is a 5, which puts 3 spades, possible straight out, I check, he says, "I really should value bet now", but checks (dipshit comment).  He wins with his two pair.

Same player, I am small blind, he raises big, $16 UTG, it is folded to me, I reraise $20 with AQ suited, he calls.  flop is something like 4/5/6, I bet $20, he calls.  Turn is a jack, I bet $20, he calls.  River is a 3, I bet my last chips (around $20), he calls.  Turns over the winning hand....A/5 offsuit....pair of 5's.  I declare "seat open" and leave.

Desperately wanted to re-buy, but as I was already stuck over my daily limit (3 rebuys), I left.  I welcome these players and will destroy them with any average luck on my part.  Overall, just a toxic table with too many weak raisers who caught lucky and too many calling stations.    

Bad Tournament Luck (Not Mine, Particularly)

Friday night was a blood bath of bad luck.  I dealt table #2 and "Mike", one of the good guy players had accumulated a good chip stack.  Another player, who I will not name, not nearly as universally popular or nice, raised big with AK offsuit.  Mike reraised all in with JJ.  The flop was small, so far so good, but with 2 clubs.  Turn again a brick, but another club.  The all-in villain had the king of clubs.  So, naturally, the river was a club.  Dumb luck prevails.  I had folded AK offsuit the hand before to mr. lucky's all in raise with 7/7.

Making the final table, Mike raised in late position with K/Q, and calls a very short stack all-in with K/4 suited.  He hits his 4 to double up.  The next hand, Mike raises with AK and calls the all-in who has K/J.  Two jacks hit the flop.

The very next hand, Mike goes all-in with Q/Q and is called by Q/10, who rivers a straight.  Three sick beats in a row, plus the earlier one.